India, China change tack

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

India and China, currently the main engines of global economic growth, re-tuned their relationship last week shifting the emphasis from confrontation and competition to strategic cooperation and developmental partnership.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping announced the re-set after a hectic two-day meet, officially labelled as informal, in the Chinese city of Wuhan. 

The two leaders talked mostly with no one in attendance except interpreters.

The summit-level meet without the usual formalities was designed to dispel mutual suspicions, build trust and break the stalemate in the relations resulting from last year’s 73-day face-off between the armies of the two countries at Doklam, close to the India-China-Bhutan tri-junction.

Ahead of the meet, the official Chinese news agency Xinhua said in a commentary that on the world stage the two countries had more than enough reasons to work closely and with a combined population of 2.6 billion they had a huge potential to tap.

Much of India’s 3,500-kilometre-long border with China is undemarcated. The two countries fought a short but bitter war over the disputed border when Mao Zedong was at the helm in China and Jawaharlal Nehru in India. Talks to resolve the dispute have been going on for decades since then with little progress so far. 

Xi told Modi the issues that divided the two countries were of a limited and temporary nature but their relationship was extensive and ongoing. They were major drivers of world economic growing and good relations between them would help global stability.

Both Xi and Modi agreed that the two countries could handle their differences peacefully.

Modi was so pleased with the success of the informal meet that he offered to host Xi at a second one next year. The India-China informal summit may well become an annual event.

The Wuhan meeting was the fourth between Modi and Xi in four years, not counting the interactions at international events where they came together. It is not surprising that nothing tangible emerged from the tête-à-tête After all, it was an informal affair

“Our leaders have a certain comfort level, they have a certain comfort in being able to communicate frankly, candidly, and we are confident that as we move ahead we will be able to ensure that the mechanisms that are in place work to build on the convergences,” Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale told the Indian media.

These words echoed the sentiments that prevailed when Nehru and Zhou Enlai proclaimed the Panch Shila, or five principles of co-existence six decades ago. Modi reinforced the mood by floating five principles of his own. 

How the turnaround came about has not been fully explained by either side. India appears to have set the ball rolling in March when it asked officials to stay away from the Tibetan exiles’ celebration of the 60th anniversary of the Dalai Lama’s arrival in this country. Modi later telephoned Xi to congratulate him on his re-election as President.

External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman visited China in April. The scheduling of the informal meet immediately after these contacts, without waiting until June when Modi and Xi will come together at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit underscores the importance both sides attach to improvement of bilateral relations.

Some analysts have attributed the Sino-Indian re-set to the realisation by both sides that the confrontationist course had landed them in a no-win situation and that the path of cooperation would benefit both.

There may be no immediate change in India’s coolness towards China’s Road and Belt initiative and China’s negative attitude towards India’s membership of the UN Security Council and Nuclear Supplies Group but if the new resolve holds on both sides the hoped-for Asian Century may yield beneficial results not only for the two countries but for the entire world.

An immediate gain from the talks was the two leaders’ decision to issue “strategic guidance” to their armies to strengthen communications to build trust and enhance predictability and effectiveness in management of border affairs: in short, to avoid a repetition of Doklam.

They also agreed to undertake a joint economic project in Afghanistan.

China is obviously keen to carry Pakistan, its long-time all-weather friend, into the new phase with it. Last December it had hosted a trilateral meeting of Foreign Ministers of China, Afghanistan and Pakistan. It has invited both India and Pakistan to join the multi-nation counter-terrorism military exercise to be held in Russia in September.  -- Gulf Today, Sharjah, May 1, 2018

Rejig of India-China relations

The global scenario may be changing but the security and diplomatic establishments of India and China are not free from the hangover of the past.

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

India-China relations underwent some quick changes in the last fortnight. For two and a half months the two countries were in an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation at Doklam, high up in the Himalayas. Just ahead of the five-nation BRICS summit at Xiamen they ended the face-off to facilitate its smooth conduct.

The joint declaration issued at the end of the summit contained enough material for both the countries to claim diplomatic successes for themselves.

The Doklam face-off, which was accompanied by beating of war drums, had raised fears of a clash of arms although it was obvious that the Himalayan heights were not the best place for a test of military strength. The imminence of the scheduled summit of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) prompted the two sides to wind down.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi would have found it difficult to go to Xiamen when Indian and Chinese troops were staring at each other at Doklam. His absence would have robbed the summit of much of its significance since India is the second most important member of the group. China was the host and President Xi Jinping was keen that the summit should succeed.

The two governments differed in their interpretation of the terms of the Doklam disengagement. They were aware of each other’s need to satisfy domestic sentiments. If they were equally solicitous of each other’s strategic interests, the face-off might not have occurred.

China underestimated India’s readiness to step in to protect Bhutan’s interests which are intertwined with its own. India did not show sufficient sensitivity to China’s interests while cosying up to the United States.

China is a regional power which, by virtue of its increased economic clout, is a candidate for global-power status. Though way behind China in economic strength, India is moving in the same direction. As nations with similar ambitions, they are bound to find themselves in circumstances of competition from time to time. But the best chance of attaining their common goal lies in friendly competition rather than hostile confrontation.

Like the Doklam formula, the joint declaration issued at Xiamen was interpreted differently by India and China to satisfy people at home.

For a nation with global ambitions, India, under Modi, has limited the contours of its foreign policy parochially. As a global issue, terrorism was on the BRICS agenda. A few days before the summit, a Chinese spokeswoman, answering a newsman’s question, referred to India’s reservations about Pakistan’s counter-terrorism record and said it was not an appropriate topic for discussion at the summit.

That didn’t prevent Modi from raising the issue at other international forums. The declaration adopted at the summit, for the first time, named two Pakistan-based militant outfits, Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaishe-e-Mohammad, whose activities have been directed against India. The government claimed this was the result of Indian security managers’ carefully focused diplomacy.

China’s official English language newspaper the Global Times attributed the Indian claim of diplomatic success to lack of research. The United Nations and Pakistan had previously listed LeT and JeM as terrorist groups subject to strikes, and China had agreed to their inclusion in the declaration as it was in line with Pakistan’s official stance, it said.

China took the earliest opportunity to make it clear that the Xiamen declaration did not involve any change in its “unbreakable friendship” with Pakistan. Welcoming his Pakistani counterpart Khawaja Asif, who came to Beijing to discuss Afghanistan developments, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, “Pakistan has been a good brother and an iron-clad friend to China. No country understands Pakistan better than China.”

Afghanistan may be where India and China face the next test. From Barack Obama’s time the US has viewed India as the country best suited to help in Afghanistan’s reconstruction after the conflict ends. While Pakistan was unhappy about it, China never raised any objection publicly.

After President Donald Trump mentioned further development of US strategic partnership with India in the South Asia policy he outlined last month, China appears to have decided to take increased interest in Afghan affairs.

After the meeting with Asif, Wang announced that China, Pakistan and Afghanistan would hold tripartite discussions to push forward negotiations for a settlement with Taliban.

The global scenario may be changing but the security and diplomatic establishments of India and China are not free from the hangover of the past. --Gulf Today, September 12, 2017.

India-China ties in a trough

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

A year after President Pranab Mukherjee spoke of India-China relations as the defining partnership of this century and called upon governments of the two countries to jointly impart momentum to bilateral ties, there is no sign of a forward movement. On the contrary, mutual distrust is threatening to destroy the good work done after the 1961 hostilities over the disputed border.

Ahead of a visit to the border state of Arunachal Pradesh by Tibetan spiritual leader Dalai Lama, who has been living in exile in India since 1959, this month the Chinese Foreign Ministry warned that it could damage bilateral relations.

Arunachal Pradesh, which was administered by the British under the name of North East Frontier Agency, is now a full-fledged state with an area of about 84,000 square kilometres and a population of 1.38 million. China claims it is South Tibet. After India ignored the warning and the Dalai Lama went ahead with the visit, Beijing announced Chinese names for six Arunachal towns to reinforce its claim.

This was the Dalai Lama’s seventh visit since 1983 to Arunachal Pradesh, where the 17th century Tawang monastery, headquarters of the Kama-Kargyu sect of Tibetan Buddhists, is located. While China routinely objected to his visits, this is the first time it has followed up the protest with any step at all. P. Stobdan, a former diplomat, believes China only wants to discourage India from thinking it can use the Dalai Lama as leverage in the dealings between the two countries.

India-China relations are now in a trough now. Each side feels that the other is not sufficiently sensitive to its interests.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose neighbourhood policy is conditioned by the Hindutva perspective on Pakistan and terrorism, is peeved with China for blocking India’s bid to join the Nuclear Suppliers Group and its attempt to get the UN to brand Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar as a terrorist.

China is suspicious of India’s evolving strategic relationship with the United States. Also, it is unhappy about India’s indifference to President Xi Jinping’s pet One Belt One Road project.

OBOR is a global network of roads, railways, pipelines and utility grids that will link China with South Asia, Central Asia and West Asia and through them to Europe. When completed, it will be the world’s largest platform for economic, social and cultural cooperation.

India’s reservations about OBOR stem primarily from its opposition to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which will run through Azad Jammu and Kashmir. CPEC is one of several corridors envisaged as part of OBOR. The corridors are expected to be dotted with energy and industrial clusters.

The Indian government initially cited lack of details about the elements of the project as a reason for its holding back. Last month an official spokesman spelt out its objection: “CPEC passes through Indian territory.”

The argument is, no doubt, valid but the objection comes too late. The 1,300-km Karakoram highway, which runs from Kashgar in the Xinjiang region of China to Abbotabad in Pakistan and will become part of CPEC, has been operational for about four decades already. India learnt of that road project only after work on it began in 1959.

India is yet to respond to China’s invitation to attend a meeting on OBOR which it has scheduled for May. The government must take an early decision in the matter, after weighing carefully the advantages that may accrue to the country from the project and the disadvantages that may result if it keeps out of it.

India’s absence will, no doubt, diminish OBOR’s worth as it is now the world’s fastest growing economy and one of the largest markets. But India needs to note that more than 60 countries with a combined GDP of $21 trillion have evinced interest in the project and it thus bids fair to be a success even without India. In fact, the chances are that circumstances may eventually compel India to join it so as to benefit from it.

An early positive decision may confer two advantages. It may lift India-China relations from the trough into which it has fallen. Many details of OBOR are still to be worked out. By joining the group before the details are filled in India may be able to play a role in shaping its course in a way beneficial to it.

India must not lose sight of the fact that it cannot secure its legitimate place in a reformed UN except with the concurrence of China, which is one of the five permanent members of the Security Council. --Gulf Today, April 25, 2017.

BRICS summit yields little

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

A verbose statement at the end of an international event is usually an attempt to cover up sparseness of the outcome. When high expectations are raised it may even become necessary to pad up public statement with platitudes to contain possible disenchantment.

The Goa declaration issued on Sunday at the end of the two-day summit of BRICS, a five-nation group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) which accounts for 47 per cent of the world’s population, ran into more than 7,200 words. It is a good example of talking much and saying little. 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi viewed the BRICS summit as yet another forum to use to carry forward the campaign to isolate Pakistan, which he launched after the attack on India’s army base at Uri.

Before the meet, there was a media campaign to make it appear that terrorism was the main issue before it. As soon as the meet ended, friendly media began propagating the idea that Modi had scored another great success in his campaign.

The Goa summit did condemn strongly terrorism in all its forms and manifestations and stress that there could be no justification whatsoever for any acts of terrorism. But, then, so did the summit held at Sanya, China, five years ago.

Of course, there was a reference to the terrorist attacks on India, which was as follows: “the recent several attacks against some BRICS countries, including that in India.” There was no mention of Pakistan or cross-border terrorism. How could they find their way into the joint statement when Pakistan’s best friend, China, is the BRICS member with the most economic clout? 

On the eve of the summit, the Chinese media had reported that there is no change in Beijing’s stand on India’s bid to join the Nuclear Suppliers Group and its demand that the UN brand Pakistan-based Masood Azhar a terrorist.

Realising that it cannot have its way at the summit, the Indian government played up the BIMSTEC (short for Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multisectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) outreach planned as part of the BRICS summit as more important than the summit itself. This grouping, which includes India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand and Sri Lanka, was in the limbo since its formation a few years ago. It suddenly became a favourite as it does not include Pakistan or China.

When BRICS took shape the economies of its members were growing at a fast pace and the International Monetary Fund had projected that by this year their combined GDP would exceed that of the US. The recent modest recovery enabled the US to raise its GDP to more than $18 trillion, but the BRICS total fell short of the projected figure as a result of slowing down of their economies. 

In the beginning, by virtue of the political traditions of its members, BRICS appeared to have the capacity to evolve as a group that can counter the influence of the US, the sole surviving superpower. The New Development Bank floated by BRICS was widely seen as an attempt to build an alternative to the US-dominated IMF.

BRICS’s presumed anti-American potential has dimmed with the recent change of government in Brazil and the cosy relationship Modi has forged with the US, exemplified by the military logistic agreement which the two countries signed recently. However, the lone superpower dispensation is palpably on the decline and new synergies are in evidence in many regions, including India’s neighbourhood. 

Russia has been moving close to China in recent months, and a few weeks ago it participated in military exercises in Pakistan. Taking into account India’s sensitivity, the Russians got the Pakistanis to shift the exercises out of the Gilgit area, which was under the control of the Maharaja of Jammu and Kashmir during the British period. But that was not enough to dispel India’s chagrin. 

Chinese President Xi Jinping came to Goa after visiting Bangladesh where he committed more than $23 billion for a slew of projects over the next five years. This is ten times more than what Modi offered when he went to Dhaka last year. China and Bangladesh signed 26 agreements and about 30 memoranda of understanding during the Xi visit. 

The summit itself may not have given Modi much to cheer but it became an occasion for renewal of Indo-Russian ties. Modi and President Vladimir Putin sang paeans of the special and privileged nature of their strategic partnership. The two countries also signed three big defence deals. ;; Gulf Today, Sharjah, October 18, 2016

A reality check on Chabahar

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

The deals India struck with Iran and Afghanistan during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visits to these countries have led to brouhaha at home and disquiet in Pakistan. The two sides appear to be exaggerating their hopes and fears.

While in Tehran last month, Modi committed $500 million for the development of Chabahar port in Iran’s Sistan-Balochistan province, which adjoins Pakistan’s Balochistan province. India, Iran and Afghanistan signed a trilateral agreement to create a transport and transit corridor.

The port and the corridor will free landlocked Afghanistan from dependence upon Pakistan for trade with India and other countries. They will provide India with access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan. They will also help boost Iran’s trade.

Last week, on his way to Qatar and the United States, Modi made his second visit to Afghanistan in less than six months. On the occasion, he inaugurated the India-Afghanistan Friendship Dam in Herat province, built at a cost of nearly $300 million, to replace the Salma dam which was damaged during the civil conflict. It will irrigate 75,000 hectares of land and help generate 42 mw of power.

India is one of the largest benefactors of war-torn Afghanistan. It has so far spent more than $1 billion in reconstruction projects and humanitarian aid in the country. While leaving, Modi tweeted, “The dam is a generator of optimism and belief in the future of Afghanistan.”

Chabahar is barely 70 km from Gwadar in Pakistan’s Balochistan province where China is building a port under an agreement of 2012. It is part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Many in India view Chabahar and the trilateral trade and transit corridor as a riposte to Gwadar and CPEC.

There is unrest in both Iranian and Pakistani parts of Balochistan. Iran has accused Pakistan’s Inter Service Intelligence (ISI) of fomenting trouble on its side of the border and Pakistan has alleged that India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) is aiding dissidents in its territory.

According to Pakistani authorities, Kulbhushan Jadhav, an Indian national whom they are holding on espionage charges, was working for RAW. Indian authorities say he is a former navy officer and he was in Chabahar as a businessman.

Against this background, it is not surprising that the trilateral project has set alarm bells ringing in Pakistan. Speaking at a seminar in Islamabad, Asif Yasin Malik and Nadeem Lodhi, both retired lieutenant generals who had also served as Defence Secretary, said it posed a security threat to Pakistan. Malik asked the government to take diplomatic measures to avoid Pakistan’s isolation. Lodhi suggested using China’s influence to fix the problem.

There is a bit of irony in the generals’ response. Pakistan has been without a full-time Foreign Minister for some time and in any case the army has been formulating foreign policy in respect of neighbouring countries.

Iran’s Ambassador in Pakistan, Mehdi Honerdoost, has revealed that the Chabahar project was first offered to China and Pakistan but they showed no interest in it.

The euphoric as well as alarmist response to Chabahar stems from conventional political and military wisdom, and overlooks the new concepts of strategic relationships being put into practice the world over.

Iran, which has just emerged from years of Western sanctions, is estimated to have 9.3 per cent of the world’s oil reserves and 18.2 per cent of the gas reserves. It is eager to make up for lost time and claim its due place in the global economy.

Significantly, President Hassan Rouhani of Iran hailed the Chabahar agreement as not only an economic document but also a political and regional one. Ambassador Mehdi Honerdoost, while recalling that China and Pakistan had rejected Chabahar, said they could still come in. Iran needed more partners for the project, and “Pakistan, our brotherly neighbour, and China, a great partner of Iranians and a good friend of Pakistan, are both welcome,” he added.

A joint statement issued when Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Iran in January had identified development of ports as a possible area of cooperation. In a commentary on the India-Iran agreement on Chabahar, the Chinese Communist Party’s English-language newspaper Global Times observed that China might be a major beneficiary of the port.

Khursheed Kasuri, considered the most successful of Pakistan’s recent foreign ministers, has said the present situation has arisen because the country’s civilian government and military leadership are not on the same page. That is a problem which Pakistan should resolve in its own interest. -- Gulf Today, Sharjah, June 7, 2016.

False steps in India-China tango

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

Was it a coincidence that Indian and Chinese troops were involved in a standoff on the heights of Ladakh when President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi were talking?

The appearance of discordant notes, when governmental leaders hold crucial meetings, are not unusual. They are often the result of calculated moves by state or non-state actors to create hurdles.    

According to Indian media reports, the confrontation on the disputed border began when Chinese troops moved forward at three places in Chumar in eastern Ladakh on September 10 just as Xi left on a nine-day tour of Tajikistan, the Maldives, Sri Lanka and India. They attributed it to renewed Chinese efforts to establish a presence in Chumar, which had been foiled earlier.

Chinese reports insinuated that the tension was engineered by India. They accused India of instigating border incidents as it wanted the talks, which are focused on trade and economic cooperation, to cover the border issue also. They recalled that there was a three-week standoff in the western part of the border ahead of Prime Minister Li Keqiang’s visit to India last year.

In the Chumar area, China is laying a track and India is constructing a canal. Each side considers the other’s activity prejudicial to its interests.

Indian media reported that Modi drew Xi’s attention to the border developments at their New Delhi meeting. Xi told him he was sad that they had cast a shadow on his visit and that he had passed on a message to the Chinese army to disengage. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said later that the situation had been “controlled and managed” through immediate and effective communication.

Before leaving India, Xi said the border dispute with India would be resolved early to promote peace and cooperation between the two countries. China had the determination to work with India and settle the boundary question through friendly consultation at an early date, he added.

However, after the Xi visit ended, Chinese soldiers entered the Chumar area again, although in smaller numbers than before.

Apart from being the President, Xi is the General Secretary of the Communist Party and Chairman of the Military Control Commission. That his message for disengagement did not evoke a full response suggests that other players are also active.

The dispute over the 3,380-kilometre long India-China border had precipitated a brief war in 1962. Chinese troops poured down through the Himalayan passes, causing Indian soldiers to scatter in disarray. The Chinese then made a quick, unilateral withdrawal.

The Line of Actual Control, which resulted from the conflict remains undefined. Since 1996, the two sides have been holding talks to resolve the border dispute but all that has come out of the exercise so far is an agreement to maintain peace along the LAC.  

Xi’s commitment to early resolution of the dispute represents a big advance. After his meeting with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during the BRICS summit at Durban last year, he had said the boundary question was a complex issue left over by history and since solving it won’t be easy the two countries should focus on boosting relations without being held back by it.

Significantly, Global Times, the English-language sister daily of the party organ, the People’s Daily, which published Xi’s statement that China was determined to work with India to settle the boundary issue at an early date, also carried a statement by an unnamed Chinese expert on South Asia that there wasn’t much chance of a settlement under the regimes of Xi and Modi.

Despite the border distractions, the Xi-Modi talks yielded some positive results. The two countries signed a dozen agreements providing for cooperation in a wide range of fields from manufacture of power equipment and automotive parts to joint  audiovisual production.

However, there was disappointment in India that China only committed itself to an investment of $20 billion in the next five years, as against a figure of $100 billion mentioned by one of its diplomats a few days earlier.

In a public speech in New Delhi, Xi reiterated his views on the importance of strategic coordination between India and China, which have a combined population of over 2.5 billion. “If we speak with one voice, the whole world will listen, and if we join hands the whole world will pay attention,” he said.

It takes two to tango. Clearly there is still a long way to go before India and China can move in step. -- Gulf Today, Sharjah, September 23, 2014.

Xi, Modi cosying up to each other

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

China-India relations appear set to enter a new stage, overcoming the mutual distrust left behind by the 1962 border war and presumed rivalry.

Both countries have new helmsmen who are ready to work together. Xi Jinping became president last year, and has a 10-year term under the succession formula the Communist Party of China has lately evolved.

Having secured a comfortable majority in the lower house of Parliament, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has an assured term of five years. Given the demoralised state of the opposition, as of now, he can reasonably look forward to a second term.  

Modi’s electoral victory led to a race by foreign leaders to woo him. Xi had an advantage over US President Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin since Modi had been to China and was an admirer of its development. Although he made some harsh remarks on China during the election campaign, the Chinese reckoned that economic considerations would temper his hard nationalist line.

The China Daily, which often takes an ultranationalist position, wrote that Modi’s preoccupation with development, which echoes China’s own experiences and development philosophy, had inspired unprecedented optimism in the country over India’s growth potential.

“Western rhetoric about China and India,” it added, “is seldom free from a conception that the two countries are rivals, as if the two were destined to stand against each other. But the fact that Beijing and New Delhi have, by and large, managed their differences well over the decades is proof they do not have to be.”

Modi’s first month in office saw an exchange of high-level visits. Xi sent his Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, to New Delhi with a message in which he spelt out his vision of India-China relations. Noting that the two countries’ dreams of building their strength and improving the condition of their peoples had a lot of commonalities, he said they should make an in-depth convergence of their development strategy, support each other with their respective strengths, build a close development partnership and hold hands to realise peaceful, cooperative and inclusive development.

Pre-scheduled visits to China by India’s Vice-President, Hamid Ansari, and Army chief, Gen Bikram Singh, came in quick succession thereafter.

Xi told Ansari that India, as an important strategic partner, is a priority for Chinese diplomacy. Three agreements negotiated while the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance was in power were signed during Ansari’s visit. One of them envisages setting up industrial parks in India for Chinese investors.

Gen Bikram Singh’s discussions in China covered regional security and other issues of common concern. Although the border dispute which precipitated the 1962 war remains unresolved, the two countries have been holding joint military exercises since 2007. Last week Xi and Modi had their first meeting when they were in Brazil for the BRICS summit. What might have ended up as a meeting on the sidelines of the summit turned into an 80-minute exchange of ideas.

Xi reiterated his perception that, judging by bilateral, regional and global perspectives, China and India are longlasting strategic and cooperative partners rather than rivals. The Chinese news agency Xinhua quoted him as saying: “If the two countries speak in one voice, the whole world will listen attentively. If the two countries join hand in hand, the whole world will watch closely.”

In response, Modi said he was willing to maintain close and good working relations with Xi.

The Xinhua account indicates that Xi repeatedly used the term “strategic” while talking of China-India relations. The term was first used in the joint declaration issued by Prime Ministers Wen Jiabao and Manmohan Singh in 2005. In it they said the incremental improvement in the relations between the two countries had acquired a global and strategic character and they had, therefore, agreed to establish a strategic and cooperative partnership for peace and prosperity.

Wen’s successor, Li Keqiang, chose India for his first foreign visit as prime minister last October. He and Manmohan Singh signed an agreement establishing a framework to manage any situation that may emerge in the disputed border region. This has cleared the way for the two countries to proceed confidently with measures to improve bilateral relations.

The benefits to be expected from increased economic cooperation are a major factor that is bringing the two countries closer together. The recent decision to hold a joint anti-terrorism exercise later this year shows they are aware of the need to extend cooperation to other areas as well. -- Gulf Today, Sharjah, July 22, 2014

Modi on a business trip

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is making his debut on the world stage. The occasion is the annual summit of BRICS, a grouping of five emerging economies from different continents, being held in Brazil today and tomorrow.

Together the five countries — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — have a GDP of $24 trillion and hold 40 per cent of the world’s population.

This year’s summit assumes special significance as BRICS is expected to announce its plan to set up a Development Bank, which some see it as a potential rival to the World Bank. The creation of a Contingent Reserve Arrangement is another positive outcome expected from it.

This is not Modi’s first trip abroad as prime minister. Although many big countries extended invitations to him when he led his Bharatiya Janata Party to a resounding victory in the elections, he chose the small landlocked Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan for his first official visit.

The BRICS summit gives him an opportunity to interact with not only leaders of India’s partners in that group but also leaders of 11 Latin American countries whom Brazil’s President Dulma Rouseff has invited to meet her guests.  

The Development Bank, conceived as a financial safety net, was mooted by India at the 2012 summit it hosted. China and Russia immediately welcomed it. It is expected to have an initial capital of $50 million, with the five founding nations contributing $10 million each.

China, the most affluent of the five countries, wants BRICS to evolve into a strategic cooperative mechanism. It is ready to put into more money the Development Bank but the others have reservations arising from the experience of the World Bank which the US controls by virtue of its large contribution to its capital.

Until now BRICS has functioned without a headquarters. There is a proposal to set up one, and several countries have come forward to host the headquarters and the development bank. A formula for smooth resolution of these issues was already in sight when Modi took off from New Delhi.

BRICS’ importance as an economic forum will increase if Russia’s proposal to establish an association to guarantee energy security to its members and undertake integrated research and analysis of global markets goes through. But, then, a multilateral forum must necessarily confront political issues too, and Modi’s interactions with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President are important in this context.

The only ministerial colleague Modi has taken with him is Nirmala Sitharaman, who is in charge of Commerce and Industry. Her presence indicates that he sees this trip primarily as a business opportunity, although the Ukraine and Palestine developments and restructuring of the UN Security Council and international financial institutions are expected to figure in the discussions.

The officials accompanying Modi include National Security Adviser Ajit Doval. A former Intelligence officer, he is now playing a key role in foreign policy issues.

The planned bilateral meetings with some Latin American leaders give Modi an opportunity to explore possibilities of expanding trade with the region, which has a combined population of 600 million and GDP of $4.9 trillion. Last year trade with the region was $42 billion. Officials believe it can be pushed up to $100 billion.

This is not Modi’s first business trip abroad. When the United States and Europe were unwilling to let him in on account of the riots that occurred in Gujarat while he was Chief Minister, he had visited China four times and secured several investment offers.

A post which appeared on his website after the 2011 visit said, “Chinese, being diligent to the core, having seen all round development and spectacular growth of Gujarat, and the leadership provided by Narendra Modi, wants to build a strong and enduring relationship with Gujarat.”

Since becoming the prime minister, he has talked of making India a global manufacturing centre like China. In Brazil, he may, in a sense, be in competition with President Xi, who also has business on his mind and has scheduled state visits to Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela and Cuba after the summit. However, both leaders are of the view that there is enough room for both countries to grow.

Xi and Modi, who are both at the beginning of their tenure, are expected to exchange visits within a year. Their ability to work together will have a bearing on the course of events in this region and beyond in the immediate future.-- Gulf Today, July 15, 2014

All eyes on Asian nations

BRP Bhaskar

Gulf Today

 

With President Barack Obama winning a second term and the Chinese Communist Party picking a team headed by Xi Jinping to lead the country for the next 10 years, the men who will steer the world’s most powerful nations in the immediate future are in position.

While the Chinese party congress, held once in five years, was on, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Defence Secretary Leon Panetta were in the Asia Pacific region, which Obama had identified last year as the new pivot in US foreign, economic and security policies.

How the two nations tackle their internal problems will have its impact on the world. If the US fails to negotiate the fiscal crisis smoothly, it may slide into recession, pulling down others with it. China’s economy has slowed down but is still robust enough to play a big role in global recovery.

Xi, the new General Secretary who will replace Hu Jintao as China’s President next March, Li Keqiang, who will succeed Wen Jiabao as Prime Minister, and Wang Qishan, Vice Premier in charge of economic affairs, are cautious reformers. The others elected to the powerful seven-member Politburo Standing Committee are said to be conservatives. Two strong reformers and the lone woman candidate were defeated.

Experts feel that the emphasis the US and China place on continued expansion of exports may limit their ability to play a constructive role in the global economy recovery.

India last month marked the 50th anniversary of the disastrous China war of 1962. As usual, the media discussed the event without reference to the right-wing jingoism which had forced the government into ordering forward troop movement, which angered Mao’s China, which was itching for some action anyway. China did not rekindle war memories the way India did.

India realises there is no possibility of an early resolution of the border dispute which precipitated the war. However, it expects economic preoccupations to help maintain smooth bilateral relations. The two countries are working together in multilateral forums like BRICS.

There are sore points, though. China suspects that India, like Japan, may be drawn into the US game plan for the Asia Pacific region, aimed at containing it and preventing it from playing its role as a global power. India is gingerly watching Beijing’s efforts to boost its presence in its immediate neighbourhood, particularly Sri Lanka and the Maldives.

Clinton and Panetta were in Australia for the annual security meeting with that country’s leaders. Ahead of their visit former prime minister Kenneth Keating talked of the limits on Australia’s foreign policy options resulting from the ties with the US. Clinton found it necessary to state that Australia does not have to choose between the US, its long-time ally, and China, its biggest trading partner.

Later, making his third visit to Asia in five months, Panetta attended a meeting of Defence Ministers of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Cambodia. He also visited Thailand for talks on strengthening military ties.

The high point of the ongoing US activity in the region is this week’s visit by President Obama. On his itinerary are Cambodia, venue of the East Asia summit, Thailand and Myanmar. It was only in July that the US resumed diplomatic relations with Myanmar which were snapped a decade ago to pressure the military junta to move towards democracy.

The annual East Asia summit brings together leaders of 18 nations, including the US, Russia, China, Japan and India.

Playing down the China angle in the US activity in the region, a State Department official accompanying Hillary Clinton said: “We want to work with China. We recognise that the Asia Pacific region is big enough for both of us.”

However, different signals too have emerged. The US-China Economic and Security Commission, in a report to Congress, said China, which is modernising its military at a remarkable rate, may have advanced land, sea and air nuclear delivery systems in the next two years. It wants the US to “get a better handle” on the size of China’s nuclear arsenal and nuclear doctrine. There are reports of renewed activity in the abandoned US bases in the Philippines and attempts to secure new bases elsewhere in the region.-- Gulf Today, Sharjah, November 20, 2012.