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Showing posts with label Asia Pacific. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Asia Pacific. Show all posts

27 August, 2013

India and the US pivot

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

The Indian defence ministry denied last week a US air force general’s claim that his country will be locating military aircraft at Thiruvananthapuram, capital of the southern state of Kerala, as part of the strategy of pivoting to the Asia Pacific.

The pivot-to-Asia policy, also described as one of “rebalancing”, involves a shift away from the Middle East, where the US have been involved in armed conflicts in recent years, to the Far East with a view to meeting a possible challenge to its global supremacy from China.

The policy was announced in 2011, but the only concrete step taken so far in pursuance of it is the deployment of US marines in Australia.

The possibility of sending military aircraft to Thiruvananthapuram was mentioned by Herbert Carlisle, chief of US air force operations in the Pacific region, while talking to reporters in Washington last month.

He said US military presence in the Pacific would be dramatically expanded this year by sending jets on rotational basis to places where there was no presence now. Instead of making heavy investment in infrastructure, existing airfields in the region will be used.

Interestingly, Pakistan, America’s partner in the Central Treaty Organisation and the Southeast Asia Treaty Organisation, two Cold War era military alliances, and collaborator in its campaign against Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, is not among the countries Carlisle mentioned in this connection. Apparently, it has been left out in view of its close ties with China.

Only a few years ago, Washington and Beijing were moving close to each other, and some countries — Vietnam, for instance — were fearful of a US-China condominium over the region. The long-term interests of the countries demand that they maintain cordial relations with the two. However, it looks as though they may be compelled to choose between them.

China views the US rebalancing act as an attempt to counter its growing influence as a global power. It recently overtook the US as the world’s largest trading nation and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development has forecast that it may overtake the US as the world’s largest economy in the next three years.

To counter the US move, China has put in place what the Pentagon describes as a policy of “anti-access and area denial” (A2/AD). It involves investment in anti-ship, land attack and ballistic missiles, counter-space weapons and military cyberspace capabilities with a view to limiting US access to likely theatres of conflict in the region and restricting its movements within the theatre.

The US plan to send military aircraft on rotation is in fact part of a new war tactic to overcome A2/AD. Dubbed AirSea Battle, as distinct from the AirLand Battle concept evolved to meet possible Soviet threat to Europe during the Cold War, it envisages combined use of air and naval power.

Although the non-alignment policy, enunciated by prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru in the context of the Cold War, has undergone mutations after the emergence of a unipolar world, there is little possibility of India associating itself with the US Pacific strategy since it will not be in its interest to do so. However, if the unresolved border dispute with China flares up the government may come under pressure to change its stance.

Several border incursions by Chinese troops have been reported in the past few months. Some critics have characterised the government’s response to them as meek and warned that the more timorous India is the more belligerent China will be.

Talks to resolve the border dispute have been going on for years without much progress. China has repeatedly stated that a quick resolution cannot be expected in view of the complex character of the dispute. It has proposed that the two countries sign a border defence cooperation agreement to prevent face-off between troops along the 4,000-kilometre long line of actual control.

Recently the Indian government approved a proposal to set up a mountain strike corps to meet the Chinese challenge. Some defence experts have questioned the wisdom of raising such a force. They are of the view that in view of the army’s drawbacks at the border the focus must be on the Indian Ocean, where China is weak.

In the wake of the Chinese aggression of 1961, Nehru himself had sought US nuclear protection. According to declassified CIA documents, his government also permitted US spy planes to use an Indian airfield.-- Gulf Today, Sharjah, August 27, 2013

20 November, 2012

All eyes on Asian nations

BRP Bhaskar
 
With President Barack Obama winning a second term and the Chinese Communist Party picking a team headed by Xi Jinping to lead the country for the next 10 years, the men who will steer the world’s most powerful nations in the immediate future are in position.

While the Chinese party congress, held once in five years, was on, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Defence Secretary Leon Panetta were in the Asia Pacific region, which Obama had identified last year as the new pivot in US foreign, economic and security policies.

How the two nations tackle their internal problems will have its impact on the world. If the US fails to negotiate the fiscal crisis smoothly, it may slide into recession, pulling down others with it. China’s economy has slowed down but is still robust enough to play a big role in global recovery.

Xi, the new General Secretary who will replace Hu Jintao as China’s President next March, Li Keqiang, who will succeed Wen Jiabao as Prime Minister, and Wang Qishan, Vice Premier in charge of economic affairs, are cautious reformers. The others elected to the powerful seven-member Politburo Standing Committee are said to be conservatives. Two strong reformers and the lone woman candidate were defeated.

Experts feel that the emphasis the US and China place on continued expansion of exports may limit their ability to play a constructive role in the global economy recovery.

India last month marked the 50th anniversary of the disastrous China war of 1962. As usual, the media discussed the event without reference to the right-wing jingoism which had forced the government into ordering forward troop movement, which angered Mao’s China, which was itching for some action anyway. China did not rekindle war memories the way India did.

India realises there is no possibility of an early resolution of the border dispute which precipitated the war. However, it expects economic preoccupations to help maintain smooth bilateral relations. The two countries are working together in multilateral forums like BRICS.

There are sore points, though. China suspects that India, like Japan, may be drawn into the US game plan for the Asia Pacific region, aimed at containing it and preventing it from playing its role as a global power. India is gingerly watching Beijing’s efforts to boost its presence in its immediate neighbourhood, particularly Sri Lanka and the Maldives.

Clinton and Panetta were in Australia for the annual security meeting with that country’s leaders. Ahead of their visit former prime minister Kenneth Keating talked of the limits on Australia’s foreign policy options resulting from the ties with the US. Clinton found it necessary to state that Australia does not have to choose between the US, its long-time ally, and China, its biggest trading partner.

Later, making his third visit to Asia in five months, Panetta attended a meeting of Defence Ministers of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Cambodia. He also visited Thailand for talks on strengthening military ties.

The high point of the ongoing US activity in the region is this week’s visit by President Obama. On his itinerary are Cambodia, venue of the East Asia summit, Thailand and Myanmar. It was only in July that the US resumed diplomatic relations with Myanmar which were snapped a decade ago to pressure the military junta to move towards democracy.

The annual East Asia summit brings together leaders of 18 nations, including the US, Russia, China, Japan and India.

Playing down the China angle in the US activity in the region, a State Department official accompanying Hillary Clinton said: “We want to work with China. We recognise that the Asia Pacific region is big enough for both of us.”

However, different signals too have emerged. The US-China Economic and Security Commission, in a report to Congress, said China, which is modernising its military at a remarkable rate, may have advanced land, sea and air nuclear delivery systems in the next two years. It wants the US to “get a better handle” on the size of China’s nuclear arsenal and nuclear doctrine. There are reports of renewed activity in the abandoned US bases in the Philippines and attempts to secure new bases elsewhere in the region.-- Gulf Today, Sharjah, November 20, 2012.