India, China change tack

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

India and China, currently the main engines of global economic growth, re-tuned their relationship last week shifting the emphasis from confrontation and competition to strategic cooperation and developmental partnership.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping announced the re-set after a hectic two-day meet, officially labelled as informal, in the Chinese city of Wuhan. 

The two leaders talked mostly with no one in attendance except interpreters.

The summit-level meet without the usual formalities was designed to dispel mutual suspicions, build trust and break the stalemate in the relations resulting from last year’s 73-day face-off between the armies of the two countries at Doklam, close to the India-China-Bhutan tri-junction.

Ahead of the meet, the official Chinese news agency Xinhua said in a commentary that on the world stage the two countries had more than enough reasons to work closely and with a combined population of 2.6 billion they had a huge potential to tap.

Much of India’s 3,500-kilometre-long border with China is undemarcated. The two countries fought a short but bitter war over the disputed border when Mao Zedong was at the helm in China and Jawaharlal Nehru in India. Talks to resolve the dispute have been going on for decades since then with little progress so far. 

Xi told Modi the issues that divided the two countries were of a limited and temporary nature but their relationship was extensive and ongoing. They were major drivers of world economic growing and good relations between them would help global stability.

Both Xi and Modi agreed that the two countries could handle their differences peacefully.

Modi was so pleased with the success of the informal meet that he offered to host Xi at a second one next year. The India-China informal summit may well become an annual event.

The Wuhan meeting was the fourth between Modi and Xi in four years, not counting the interactions at international events where they came together. It is not surprising that nothing tangible emerged from the tête-à-tête After all, it was an informal affair

“Our leaders have a certain comfort level, they have a certain comfort in being able to communicate frankly, candidly, and we are confident that as we move ahead we will be able to ensure that the mechanisms that are in place work to build on the convergences,” Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale told the Indian media.

These words echoed the sentiments that prevailed when Nehru and Zhou Enlai proclaimed the Panch Shila, or five principles of co-existence six decades ago. Modi reinforced the mood by floating five principles of his own. 

How the turnaround came about has not been fully explained by either side. India appears to have set the ball rolling in March when it asked officials to stay away from the Tibetan exiles’ celebration of the 60th anniversary of the Dalai Lama’s arrival in this country. Modi later telephoned Xi to congratulate him on his re-election as President.

External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman visited China in April. The scheduling of the informal meet immediately after these contacts, without waiting until June when Modi and Xi will come together at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit underscores the importance both sides attach to improvement of bilateral relations.

Some analysts have attributed the Sino-Indian re-set to the realisation by both sides that the confrontationist course had landed them in a no-win situation and that the path of cooperation would benefit both.

There may be no immediate change in India’s coolness towards China’s Road and Belt initiative and China’s negative attitude towards India’s membership of the UN Security Council and Nuclear Supplies Group but if the new resolve holds on both sides the hoped-for Asian Century may yield beneficial results not only for the two countries but for the entire world.

An immediate gain from the talks was the two leaders’ decision to issue “strategic guidance” to their armies to strengthen communications to build trust and enhance predictability and effectiveness in management of border affairs: in short, to avoid a repetition of Doklam.

They also agreed to undertake a joint economic project in Afghanistan.

China is obviously keen to carry Pakistan, its long-time all-weather friend, into the new phase with it. Last December it had hosted a trilateral meeting of Foreign Ministers of China, Afghanistan and Pakistan. It has invited both India and Pakistan to join the multi-nation counter-terrorism military exercise to be held in Russia in September.  -- Gulf Today, Sharjah, May 1, 2018

Xi, Modi cosying up to each other

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

China-India relations appear set to enter a new stage, overcoming the mutual distrust left behind by the 1962 border war and presumed rivalry.

Both countries have new helmsmen who are ready to work together. Xi Jinping became president last year, and has a 10-year term under the succession formula the Communist Party of China has lately evolved.

Having secured a comfortable majority in the lower house of Parliament, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has an assured term of five years. Given the demoralised state of the opposition, as of now, he can reasonably look forward to a second term.  

Modi’s electoral victory led to a race by foreign leaders to woo him. Xi had an advantage over US President Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin since Modi had been to China and was an admirer of its development. Although he made some harsh remarks on China during the election campaign, the Chinese reckoned that economic considerations would temper his hard nationalist line.

The China Daily, which often takes an ultranationalist position, wrote that Modi’s preoccupation with development, which echoes China’s own experiences and development philosophy, had inspired unprecedented optimism in the country over India’s growth potential.

“Western rhetoric about China and India,” it added, “is seldom free from a conception that the two countries are rivals, as if the two were destined to stand against each other. But the fact that Beijing and New Delhi have, by and large, managed their differences well over the decades is proof they do not have to be.”

Modi’s first month in office saw an exchange of high-level visits. Xi sent his Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, to New Delhi with a message in which he spelt out his vision of India-China relations. Noting that the two countries’ dreams of building their strength and improving the condition of their peoples had a lot of commonalities, he said they should make an in-depth convergence of their development strategy, support each other with their respective strengths, build a close development partnership and hold hands to realise peaceful, cooperative and inclusive development.

Pre-scheduled visits to China by India’s Vice-President, Hamid Ansari, and Army chief, Gen Bikram Singh, came in quick succession thereafter.

Xi told Ansari that India, as an important strategic partner, is a priority for Chinese diplomacy. Three agreements negotiated while the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance was in power were signed during Ansari’s visit. One of them envisages setting up industrial parks in India for Chinese investors.

Gen Bikram Singh’s discussions in China covered regional security and other issues of common concern. Although the border dispute which precipitated the 1962 war remains unresolved, the two countries have been holding joint military exercises since 2007. Last week Xi and Modi had their first meeting when they were in Brazil for the BRICS summit. What might have ended up as a meeting on the sidelines of the summit turned into an 80-minute exchange of ideas.

Xi reiterated his perception that, judging by bilateral, regional and global perspectives, China and India are longlasting strategic and cooperative partners rather than rivals. The Chinese news agency Xinhua quoted him as saying: “If the two countries speak in one voice, the whole world will listen attentively. If the two countries join hand in hand, the whole world will watch closely.”

In response, Modi said he was willing to maintain close and good working relations with Xi.

The Xinhua account indicates that Xi repeatedly used the term “strategic” while talking of China-India relations. The term was first used in the joint declaration issued by Prime Ministers Wen Jiabao and Manmohan Singh in 2005. In it they said the incremental improvement in the relations between the two countries had acquired a global and strategic character and they had, therefore, agreed to establish a strategic and cooperative partnership for peace and prosperity.

Wen’s successor, Li Keqiang, chose India for his first foreign visit as prime minister last October. He and Manmohan Singh signed an agreement establishing a framework to manage any situation that may emerge in the disputed border region. This has cleared the way for the two countries to proceed confidently with measures to improve bilateral relations.

The benefits to be expected from increased economic cooperation are a major factor that is bringing the two countries closer together. The recent decision to hold a joint anti-terrorism exercise later this year shows they are aware of the need to extend cooperation to other areas as well. -- Gulf Today, Sharjah, July 22, 2014

New kid on the missile block

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

Indian public opinion responded with a display of patriotic fervour last week as the country blasted its way into the elite club of countries with long-range missile capability by successfully test-firing the indigenously designed and built Agni V, with a range of 5,000 kilometres.

 “We are today a missile power,” said VK Saraswat, head of Defence Research and Development Organisation, which handles the Agni missile programme. Sections of the media interpreted it to mean the country now has the capability to fire an intercontinental missile.

China greeted the arrival of the new kid on the missile block with a quaint mix of sneer, suspicion and sobriety. The state-owned Global Times said India, swept up by missile delusion, apparently is hoping to enter the intercontinental ballistic missile club, although ICBMs normally have a range of over 8,000 km.

The newspaper quoted a researcher at the People’s Liberation Army Academy of Military Sciences as saying Agni V actually has the potential to reach targets 8,000 km away, but the Indian government is downplaying its capability to avoid causing concern to other countries.

“China and India should develop as friendly a relationship as possible,” the newspaper said. “Even if this cannot be achieved, the two should at least tolerate each other and learn to coexist.”

A 17.5m tall, solid-fuelled, three-stage vehicle with a launch weight of 50 tonnes, Agni V cost more than Rs 2.5 billion to build. It can carry a one-tonne nuclear payload.

India did not inform China in advance about the launch. But China was following developments closely. Its media carried reports on the launch preparations and took note of a day’s delay caused by bad weather.

Apart from China, parts of Europe and capitals as far apart as Tehran, Jakarta and Manila fall within the range of Agni V but there was hardly any criticism from the rest of the world.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation said it did not consider India a missile threat to its allies or territory. The United States responded with a call for restraint, addressed to all nuclear-capable states.

With the border dispute which led to a short war between India and China a half-century ago still unresolved, the relationship between the two countries remains uneasy. In view of China’s cosy relations with Pakistan, Indian defence planning takes into account the possibility of having to fight on two fronts at the same time. 

Pakistan’s response to Agni V was muted presumably because it makes little difference to the military balance between the two countries. Both countries possess intermediate-range nuclear-capable missiles and have thus been, in a sense, in a situation of mutual deterrence already.

Both China and India hiked up their defence budgets this year – China by 11.2 per cent to touch a record $106 billion, and India by 17.63 per cent to reach a new high of $39 billion. The huge gap between the outlays reflects the differing strategic perceptions of the two countries. 

China justifies its huge military spending, pointing out that it is only 1.2 per cent of its gross domestic product and is in keeping with its security environment and economic and social development. It already has a missile with a range of 13,000 km, which puts North America within striking distance.

India’s defence budget is about 1.9 per cent of its GDP. Military and strategic experts have been arguing it must be raised to three per cent to effectively deter both China and Pakistan. However, military spending of that order can be ruled out as it will hamper the country’s developmental efforts.

China knows that India is not seeking military parity with it and poses no threat to it. Its concerns actually stem from the fear of India’s possible involvement with the USA which has stepped up its presence in the Pacific.

India has cause for worry too. Its problem is not that it cannot match China’s military manpower and hardware but that it is heavily dependent upon outside sources for equipment. It is now the world’s largest importer of arms.

What India perceives as China’s arrogance and China terms India’s persecution mania are pointers to the psychological hurdles the two countries must cross before they can establish healthy bilateral relations. Close cooperation in a forum like BRICS, which includes, besides them, Brazil, Russia and South Africa, may help in this regard.  -- Gulf Today, Sharjah, April 23, 2012