Modi’s record is good in parts

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

As Prime Minister Narendra Modi completes one year in office, opinion on his performance is sharply divided. Fans affirm he has redeemed India but opponents say he is ruining the country. Then there are observers who wonder whether there has been a change of administration at all.

Modi, like Muhammad Ali, believes he is the greatest. So do his loyal followers. According to BS Yeddyurappa, Vice-President of his Bharatiya Janata Party, Modi is running a clean, efficient pro-people government. For the first time in many years there is a government that is scam-free, he says.

Yeddyurappa ran a corrupt administration in Karnataka and does not have the right credentials to issue a certificate of integrity. There are other reasons too for not taking his statement at face value.

Scams generally surface years late, when reports of the Comptroller and Auditor-General become available. The cases instituted against some members of Manmohan Singh’s second government were based on what they did as members of his first government. Modi’s acceptance of a custom-made suit, reportedly worth Rs1 million, from a businessman and the windfall gains his corporate financiers are making cast doubts on Yeddyurappa’s claim.

Political opponents who were alarmed by Modi’s emergence on the national scene in view of the Hindutva-engineered riots in Gujarat under his watch cite the rabid outbursts of some BJP MPs and the attacks on churches and reconversion campaigns in some states as evidence of the regime’s communal agenda. However, there is reason to believe he is trying to restrain the hotheads, though belatedly, since their activities are giving his government a bad name at home and abroad.

Modi is on the verge of setting a globe-trotting record with visits to 18 countries in 12 months. The travels were planned with the twin objectives of improving bilateral and multilateral relations and securing investments to make India a manufacturing hub. They have provoked the good-humoured comment that he is the first Non-Resident Indian prime minister.

The Make-in-India programme is Modi’s main employment generation scheme. Several countries, including China and the United States, have evinced interest in it. Since big projects necessarily take time to materialise, it is too early to decide how successful the programme is.

Meanwhile, Modi has some hurdles to cross at home. Several measures he has initiated to ease the way for domestic and foreign investors – these include relaxation in laws relating to land acquisition and employment of children – have met with opposition.

In his election speeches, Modi had accused the previous governments of wasting nearly six decades. He is now reassessing the past more realistically. Last week, at Shanghai, he spoke of a backlog of only three decades when he took over. That means he has exonerated all prime ministers up to PV Narasimha Rao, including his bete noire, the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty.

Manmohan Singh, who headed the two United Progressive Alliance governments, is still on Modi’s list of defaulters, but observers are finding it difficult to differentiate between the economic policies of the two. Much of the economic legislation Modi has pushed through Parliament so far, such as the insurance, coal and general sales tax bills, are measures initiated by Manmohan Singh. As one scribe puts it, “Modi has achieved the impossible: he has given us another year of UPA.”

However, Modi has reason to be happy. The global downturn had slowed down economic growth during Manmohan Singh’s second term. With the US and other major countries on the path of recovery, the pace is picking up again, and the International Monetary Fund has forecast that India will register an expansion of 7.2 per cent, outstripping China’s 6.8 per cent.

Indian and foreign business interests are hopeful that Modi will be able to keep his promise and make changes of the kind they wish to see. The Associated Chamber of Commerce gives him only seven marks out of 10. But the global consultancy firm PwC’s 2015 survey says Indian CEOs are the most optimistic in the world.

Modi has not been able to infuse the same degree of optimism in the poor who constitute one-fourth of India’s population. Economic distress continues to drive peasants to suicide. Sensing trouble on this front, the BJP has drawn up a campaign plan designed to give him a pro-poor image.

Modi’s progress card for the year, like the curate’s egg, is good in parts. Opinion polls indicate that his personal popularity is still high. He will face a field test when some states go to the polls later this year. -- Gulf Today, Sharjah, May 19, 2015.

All over bar the shouting

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

With the last batch of 41 constituencies in three states going to the polls on Monday, the long-drawn-out voting process in the general election has been completed. All that now remains is the counting of votes, scheduled for Friday, and the shouting.

Leaving the keenest, bitterest and dirtiest campaign behind, the nation is awaiting the answer to the question who will form the next government — the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance which ruled during the past 10 years, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance which was in power for six years previously or a third force comprising small national and regional parties as on a few occasions earlier occasions.

The BJP ran a no-holds-barred campaign under Narendra Modi, whom its ideological parent, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, had picked as the prime ministerial candidate. A critical element in its strategy was the generation of a Modi wave with the help of groups adept in traditional and new media marketing techniques.

It believes the strategy worked. In the closing stages of the campaign, Modi referred to himself as the next prime minister. However, the decision to keep NDA’s doors open to newcomers indicates the BJP is not sure of getting 272+ seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha.

The Congress, carrying multiple burdens of incumbency, graft charges and dampening pre-poll survey reports, claims it is still in the reckoning. It believes small parties which can play a big role in a hung parliament will be willing to back it. But they want to cobble together a federal front and force the Congress to back them to prevent the BJP’s coming to power.

A realistic appraisal of the possible combinations must wait until the electronic voting machines yield their secret and the strength of the different parties in the new house becomes known.

While the poll process was on the BJP was able to woo back into the NDA some parties which were its partners during 1998-2004, like the Lok Janashakti Party of Bihar, the Telugu Desam Party of Andhra Pradesh and Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and Pattali Makkal Kachi of Tamil Nadu.

However, more powerful former partners like the Trinamool Congress of West Bengal, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam of Tamil Nadu and the Biju Janata Dal of Odisha stayed away. Towards the end, Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee and AIAMDK leader J Jayalalithaa took a strong anti-BJP line with a view to reassuring their Muslim supporters and bolstering their position in the proposed federal front.

Modi set the tone and tenor of the campaign, which soon turned abusive, and leaders of other parties responded in kind. His prime targets were Congress President Sonia Gandhi and Vice-president Rahul Gandhi. Priyanka Gandhi, who was chief campaigner for mother Sonia in Rae Bareli and brother Rahul in Amethi, described Modi’s politics as “neech” (meaning low), a term often used to denote those at the bottom of the caste hierarchy. Modi complained she had called him low-born. Mamata Banerjee called Modi donkey.

Television channels picked up every word that should not have been said. They played it repeatedly and took it up for discussion in the nightly shows.

The Election Commission too had a taste of Modi’s wrath. When it upheld the District Collector’s decision to deny him permission to hold a rally in Varanasi on grounds of security, he accused it of match fixing. A cartoonist presented the situation differently. He depicted Modi as a boxer who leaves his opponent and punches the referee. There were 8,163 candidates for the 543 seats, an average of 15+ for every seat. While the number of multimillionaire candidates rose from 1,249 in 2009 to 2,208, that of candidates facing serious criminal charges like murder, attempted murder, kidnapping and crimes against women jumped from 608 to 889.

The people, the parties and the Election Commission can pat themselves on the back for completing the process involving an electorate of 814.5 million more or less peacefully. So far the highest turnout in a Lok Sabha election was 63.56 per cent registered in 1984. This time, when eight of the nine phases were completed, the poll percentage stood at 66.27. It must have gone up further in the last phase.

The Aam Admi Party, which made its parliamentary debut with 427 candidates, holds out some hope for the future as it is the first secular national party to come up in a long time. -- Gulf Today, Sharjah, May 13, 2014.

Modi in ‘now or never’ battle

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

India’s voters, numbering more than 814 million, have been called upon to choose 543 members of Parliament as a first step towards the formation a new government in place of the Manmohan Singh administration, which completes its current term in May.

The schedule prepared by the Election Commission provides for polling in nine phases spread over five weeks, from April 7. That leaves the political parties with little time to complete the selection of candidates.

The Congress, which heads the ruling United Progressive Alliance, and the Bharatiya Janata Party, which heads the rival National Democratic Alliance, have more at stake in this election than any other party. Both are expected to contest between 400 and 450 seats. So far they have not finalised candidates for even half of the seats.

The election presents the first real test for Rahul Gandhi who is in the process of taking over the stewardship of the Congress party from his mother, Sonia Gandhi, and is almost sure to be the prime minister if it is in a position to form a new government. He faces an uphill task as the party, which has been continuously in power for 10 years, enters the fray with its burden of double incumbency compounded by a spate of corruption scandals.

He picked up the reins too late to be able to project himself as a credible agent of change capable of redeeming the party. He could stop the government from going ahead with some unpopular ideas but he could not push through legislative measures which he claimed were important tools needed to fight corruption.

In the event, few credit Rahul Gandhi with the ability to avert the electoral reverse that awaits the party. However, a poor poll performance is unlikely to pose any serious threat to his leadership of the party since he has inherited it as the heir of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty.

The BJP, which lost two successive elections under the leadership of former deputy prime minister Lal Kishen Advani, is making an all-out bid for power this time under three-time Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi.

An indefatigable campaigner, Modi has created tremendous enthusiasm not only among the party’s Hindutva clientele but also among large sections of urban youth who have responded enthusiastically to his call to put divisive issues behind and unite for development.

The Janata Dal (United), Bihar’s ruling party and a long-time ally of the BJP, broke away from the NDA the moment the party named Modi its prime ministerial candidature, citing his alleged role in facilitating the 2002 anti-Muslim riots in Gujarat. That left the NDA without any constituent with secular credentials.

However, the BJP later improved its image somewhat by forging an alliance with another Bihar party, Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party.

Paswan had resigned from the NDA government in 2002 to vote against it in Parliament on the issue of the Gujarat riots. His return to the NDA indicates readiness to work under Modi if he becomes the Prime Minister, forgetting the 2002 carnage. 

The Telugu Desam party of Andhra Pradesh, which, too, is a former NDA constituent, is also in talks with the BJP and ready to make up with Modi.

However, two other parties which were NDA partners when it was in power, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa’s All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, appear determined to pursue an independent course.

West Bengal, with 42 seats in the Lok Sabha, and Tamil Nadu, with 39 seats, are comparatively big players and the two chief ministers are seeking to maximise their parties’ parliamentary strength with a view to enhancing their role in national affairs.

Mamata Banerjee recently said that she was ready to accept Jayalalithaa or Bahujan Samaj Party leader and former Uttar Pradesh chief minister Mayawati as the prime minister. 

These developments must worry Narendra Modi, for whom this is a ‘now or never’ battle. The BJP named him as its prime ministerial candidate under pressure from the Hindutva powerhouse, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, overruling the objections of Advani and other national level leaders. If he fails to land the top job, critics within the party are sure to attribute his rejection by the electorate to the odium of the Gujarat riots and the RSS may not be able to persuade the party to nominate him again. -- Gulf Today, Sharjah, March 11, 2014.

A spanner in presidential works

BRP Bhaskar

Gulf Today

The signs of a presidential race in the making have dissipated somewhat and the parliamentary elections, due in a few months, may now follow the conventional pattern. The credit for this goes primarily to the new kid on the block, the Aam Admi Party.

With regional parties and small national parties gravitating towards the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance or the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance, before or after the elections, India has been going through a phase of coalition governments for some years.

In the elections of 2004 and 2009 the combined vote share of the Congress and the BJP was below 50 per cent. This meant that a majority of the voters were already with regional parties and small national parties. With their vote share expected to go up in this year’s elections, ambitious leaders of some of the parties began eying the prime minister’s chair.

Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, whom the BJP picked as its prime ministerial candidate, altered the political scenario with a bold campaign in the recent assembly elections in four northern states, which the media had dubbed as a semi-final. He succeeded in creating an impression that the final will be a presidential kind of race between him and Rahul Gandhi, the Congress party’s presumptive prime ministerial nominee.

The BJP’s success in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh and its emergence as the largest single party in Delhi state appeared to confirm pollsters’ forecast that the BJP will emerge as the largest single party in the next Lok Sabha and earn the right to form the government. Modi sought to boost his prospects further by setting the goal of an absolute majority for his party.

As the implications of the Delhi verdict sank in, political observers found it necessary to reassess the situation. The AAP, which blocked the BJP’s return to power, was able to form the government in the state with the Congress extending support from outside. It has now announced plans to contest the Lok Sabha elections, raising an alarm in the coteries of the established parties.

Many imagined the AAP will confine itself to urban constituencies where it can hope to replicate the Delhi story. But the party has said it will field as many candidates as possible, the only restricting factors being its organisational limitations and the availability of suitable candidates.

As in the Delhi state elections, the AAP hopes to cash in on the people’s disgust with the corrupt ways of the mainstream parties. In Yogendra Yadav, its ideologue, the party has a valuable strategic planner. He has been studying Indian electoral behaviour for many years and is possibly more knowledgeable than anyone else in the country on the social dynamics of the polity at both the national and regional levels.

Yadav recently spoke of AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal as an alternative prime ministerial candidate. Kejriwal quickly dismissed the suggestion, which had the potential to bolster Modi’s bid to reduce the elections to a one-to-one fight for the top post, glossing over the complex problems for which the people are looking for solutions. 

The Modi juggernaut was already slowing down when Kejriwal threw a spanner in the presidential works. It will be back on the road again after a re-jig but it remains to be seen whether it can regain the lost momentum.

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam leader J Jayalalithaa has set before her party the ambitious target of grabbing all 39 of the state’s Lok Sabha seats as well as Puducherry’s lone seat so as to give her a big role in national politics. Other state party leaders are sure to follow her lead with a view to maximising their bargaining power.

The Congress party, whose image is tarnished by corruption scandals, is yet to put its act together. Its governmental and organisational wings inspire little confidence. The party’s rank and file view Rahul Gandhi as its prime ministerial face, even though there has been no formal announcement to that effect.

He recently forced the Centre to abandon a proposed law to protect tainted legislators and got the Maharashtra government to re-examine its decision to reject the probe report on the Adarsh scam. Such stray interventions are not enough to convince the people that he can be the agent of change they are looking for. -- Gulf Today, Sharjah, January 7, 2014.

Congress needs to understand people's yearning for change

By B.R.P.Bhaskar

Special to IANS

The dismal performance of the Congress in the four Hindi-speaking states which went to the polls recently did not surprise anyone, except perhaps its own leaders. Pollsters have been saying for more than a year that it is on the decline. They have said the popular mood is such that the Bharatiya Janata Party will push it down to the second place and emerge as the largest party in the Lok Sabha in next year's elections.

Congress leaders have offered the self-serving explanation that the party lost because it failed to apprise the people of the good work done by its governments at the Centre and in the states. They should ask themselves if the good things that happened under their watch are sufficient to persuade the people to overlook the bad things such as rampant corruption and spiralling prices.

People form judgments continually on the basis of how governments' actions impinge on their lives.

The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government is mired in scams, and its popularity has touched the nadir. Some leaders of the Congress and its allies are fighting graft charges in courts. When acts of malfeasance came to light, the UPA, instead of squarely facing the situation, reflexively went into denial mode and resorted to cover-up.

Corruption has grown enormously in recent years. What's more, it is now an issue high up in people's minds, thanks to Anna Hazare's on-again, off-again Jan Lokpal campaign.

Corruption, as Indira Gandhi famously observed, is a global phenomenon. A historical analysis will bear out that most countries faced corruption when their economy was growing rapidly. The British parliament had hauled up Clive and Warren Hastings on their return home from India with loot. Japan, South Korea and China, which witnessed economic boom ahead of India, also witnessed high corruption. While they sent functionaries like president, prime minister and party bosses to jail, India has had a poor record in dealing with corruption at the top.

Other parties too are affected by corruption. The BJP was forced to act against its chief minister in Karnataka, B.S.Yeddyurappa, following serious allegations, and he broke away and formed a regional party. Now it is trying to get him back to its side before the parliamentary elections. There were corruption charges against a dozen members of the BJP government in Madhya Pradesh but that did not prevent the party from securing a third term in the Assembly elections.

Clearly, the Congress has an image problem it cannot wish away. Corruption charges stick more easily to it than to others since it has been in power longest and is assumed to have been corrupted to a greater extent than the rest.

It is unfair to throw the blame for the party's present plight entirely on Manmohan Singh, as some Congressmen are doing. After all, he had also presided over UPA I, which did well enough to secure a new mandate for the party.

Some of the Congress's problems do not admit of easy solutions. It is saddled with leaders with a record of mishandling issues of import. Telangana is a classic example of a problem complicated by leaders whom the high command had relied upon to sort out difficulties. Such problems are the price the party has to pay for attaching greater value to servitude than to competence.

The party's shrinking vote base presumably still includes many who view it as the party of Gandhi or Nehru or Indira Gandhi, all of whom had forged emotional links with the ordinary people. Having relied upon nominated leaders after the 1969 split, at the state level it lacks leaders and an apparatus capable of ensuring delivery of its votes. This leaves it in a disadvantageous situation, especially in states where it is pitted against cadre parties.

Where the party apparatus is intact, as in Kerala, it faces difficulty of another kind. The supposedly all-powerful high command has to remain a helpless spectator when a leadership which stands discredited, following disclosures about closeness to cheats and communal elements, drags the party down with it.

There are, of course, issues that can be addressed, not to find quick-fix solutions but to refurbish the party's image before the elections. It may be able to regain some lost ground if it can convey the message that it understands the people's yearning for change, reflected in the Assembly elections, and is willing to reinvent itself.

A new Lok Sabha has to be in position before the term of the present one ends in May 2014. Last time, the deadline was June 2 and the long-drawn-out electoral process began with the Election Commission announcing the poll schedule March 2. This time the announcement may have to be advanced to mid-February.

The moment the schedule is announced, the model code comes into force, and the government will not be able to initiate any new programmes or policies. That means the Congress has just two months for any makeover effort. But the party stands paralyzed, caught between a prime minister who has outlived his utility and a fancied successor who is finding it difficult to get rid of the reluctant groom syndrome.

Unsteady coalition plods on

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government is tottering with the loss of two large coalition partners in a span of six months but plods on, confident in the feeling that it will not be overthrown as few parties want to face elections immediately.

The Trinamool Congress, the Congress party’s largest ally, walked out of the coalition last September protesting against the decisions to open the retail sector to foreign direct investment and limit the subsidy on liquefied petroleum gas. The exit of its 19 members reduced the UPA to a minority with only 254 members in the 544-strong Lok Sabha. However, there was no threat to the government as it was supported from outside by the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party which have 22 and 21 members respectively.

Last week the next biggest constituent, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, with 18 members, pulled out of the alliance protesting against the government’s failure to press for censure of Sri Lanka in the UN Human Rights Council for violation of the rights of the island’s Tamil minority.

This further reduced the coalition’s strength in parliament, but the continued support of the SP and the BSP gives it the necessary numbers to claim a majority in the house. However, it is at the mercy of the SP and the BSP, either of which can bring it down at any time.

The SP’s Mulayam Singh Yadav and the BSP’s Mayawati are both ambitious leaders capable of driving hard bargains. Arch rivals in Uttar Pradesh politics, circumstances have forced them into the same side at the Centre.

The DMK had remained in the coalition without demur during the closing stages of the civil war in Sri Lanka when atrocities against the Tamils took place. Few, therefore, believe that its decision to withdraw support to the UPA and pull out its five ministers was dictated by sympathy for Sri Lankan Tamils.

DMK chief M Karunanidhi had been sulking since his daughter Kanimozhi, MP, and party colleague and former Communication Minister A Raja were arrested by the Central Bureau of Investigation in 2011 on corruption charges. He chose to quit the coalition on the Sri Lankan human rights violations since it is an emotive issue in Tamil Nadu.

As soon as Karunanidhi announced his intention to leave the UPA, the Congress rushed three senor ministers, AK Antony, P Chidambaram and Ghulam Nabi Azad, to Chennai to mollify him. This was not easy since the government is keen to avoid doing anything which will push the Sri Lankan administration closer to China.

Yet, in a bid to placate him, the Congress leadership explored, against its own best judgement, the possibility of pushing through Parliament a resolution critical of Sri Lankan human rights violations. The move did not find favour with the Bharatiya Janata Party, the main opposition, and other parties like the SP and the Trinamool Congress. The aborted effort revealed a North-South divide in the country on the Sri Lankan issue.

The Congress, which has 203 members in the Lok Sabha, is now left with no ally with two-digit strength in the house, its largest remaining partners being Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar’s National Congress Party (nine members), Civil Aviation Minister Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (five) and Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (three).

Mayawati lost control of UP, the largest state, which sends 80 members to the Lok Sabha, in last year’s Assembly elections. She will not precipitate a situation which will lead to immediate parliamentary elections as it is unlikely to improve her party’s position.

Mulayam Singh Yadav may be thinking differently. The SP won the Assembly elections in the state and he has installed his son, Akhilesh Yadav, as the chief minister. He will not hesitate to pull the rug from under the UPA’s feet if he thinks the time is ripe for a kill. He knows that if he waits too long the ground situation may change to his disadvantage.

Facing increasing isolation as the elections approach, the Congress has begun a search for new allies. One party whose name figures in the speculation in this connection is the Janata Dal (United), the BJP’s largest partner in the National Democratic Alliance. The party heads the government in Bihar, a state with 40 seats in the Lok Sabha. The price Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has set for the support to any government at the Centre is a special package for his economically backward state.

A realignment of forces ahead of the elections is a possibility. -- Gulf Today, Sharjah, March 26, 2013

Caught in another scam

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

The United Progressive Alliance government is in damage control mode following revelations in an Italian court that Indians were bribed to secure orders for helicopters. It has asked the Central Bureau of Investigation to probe the charge but there is little chance of the agency coming up with any concrete evidence.

Many military contracts have been mired in scandals but now, for the first time, the name of the chief of staff of a defence force has come up in a corruption case.

It was in 2010 that India placed orders with AgustaWestland, an Anglo-Italian company, for 12 helicopters for the VVIP squadron which flies the president, the prime minister and visiting dignitaries. Early last year Italian prosecutors began an inquiry into allegations that AW’s parent company, Finmeccanica, had paid kickbacks, part of which had reached Italian politicians. The Indian contract was mentioned in this connection.

Last week Finmeccanica’s chief executive, Giuseppe Orsi, was arrested for allegedly paying $670 million to secure the Indian order. According to the prosecution, Air Chief Marshal SP Tyagi, who was Chief of Air Staff from December 2004 to March 2007, was paid an amount, which has not been quantified yet, through his relatives “to perform and for having performed a deed against his official duties.”

Both Orsi and the company have denied the bribery charge. Tyagi has admitted that he met certain middlemen involved in the deal in the company of some relatives, but asserts he took no money.

The deed Tyagi allegedly performed was modification of the specifications of the helicopter to favour AgustaWestland. He points out that the modification was done in 2003, before he became air force chief, and the contract with the firm was signed three years after his retirement.

The deal with AgustaWestland was signed after a decade-long quest for a suitable helicopter, which began when the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance was in power. Taking into account the possibility of having to fly VVIPs to high-altitude areas like the Siachen Glacier, it was proposed that the helicopter must be capable of flying at a height of 18,000 feet.

Brajesh Mishra, then National Security Adviser, suggested modification of the specification. In a letter to the then air chief he said the height specified had created a single-window situation since Eurocopter, a Franco-German enterprise, was the only one with a helicopter that can fly at 18,000 feet. He asked that the specifications be revised in consultation with the Special Protection Group, which looks after VVIP security.

The SPG proposed that the operational height be lowered to 15,000 feet. This opened the way for AgustaWestland to participate in the tender. The SPG also wanted safety to be a prime consideration. This gave AW a distinct advantage as its helicopter had three engines, not just two.

Following the NDA’s defeat in the 2004 elections, the UPA came to power and in 2005 AK Antony was appointed defence minister. Reports at that time said Congress President and UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi had picked him for the post in view of his clean reputation.

Congress and BJP spokespersons are working overtime to pin responsibility for the scam on each other. The former relies on the fact that the NDA government initiated the move to modify the specification. The latter points out that the modification was approved and the contract awarded by the UPA government.

When reports of the Italian investigation appeared in the Indian media a year ago Antony asked the defence ministry to look into the matter. The Indian embassy in Rome was not able to provide any information beyond what had been published. Parliament was told an inquiry could not be undertaken merely on the basis of media reports.

Unlike in the 2G and Commonwealth Games scandals, now before the courts, the name of no politician has come up in the AW deal so far. But the BJP sees in it an opportunity to embarrass the Italian-born Congress President Sonia Gandhi. It has also called for an inquiry into the role of an aide of her son and Congress Vice-President, Rahul Gandhi.

The new scam brings to mind memories of the Bofors scandal in which the names of prime minister Rajiv Gandhi and his friends had come up. The CBI investigated it for many years without any success.-- Gulf Today, Sharjah, February 19, 2013.

Daunting poll challenge

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

The Bharatiya Janata Party, which is preparing to challenge the Congress party in the 2014 parliamentary elections, has a daunting task ahead.

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance was in power from 1999 to 2004. In Atal Behari Vajpayee it had a popular prime minister and the economy did well. Yet it could not win a second five-year term on the “India Shining” slogan. The electorate rebuffed it again in 2009.

Now it has cause for optimism. As many as 39 per cent of those who participated in a recent opinion poll said they would vote for the NDA if elections were held now. Only 22 per cent said they would vote for the UPA.

The poll also showed that Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, frontrunner in the party’s prime ministerial stakes, has a 36 per cent rating. Rahul Gandhi, whom the Congress party recently made its vice-president and is seen as its prime ministerial candidate, is way behind with only 22 per cent.

But the BJP has cause to worry too. The collapse of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh’s bid to secure for Nitin Gadkari a second three-year term as BJP president indicates the emergence of new dynamics in Parivar politics. This is the first time that the RSS failed to have its way in the choice of the party president.

Gadkari, a former Maharashtra minister, was little known outside the state when the RSS picked him for the top post in 2009. He became a source of acute embarrassment to the party when the media brought to light his connections with some dubious business concerns late last year, leading to an official probe. Yet the RSS pushed for his re-election. Stiff resistance by party leaders like Lal Kishen Advani and Ram Jethmalani forced it to abandon him and agree to the election of former president Rajnath Singh.

The Gadkari fiasco has come on the heels of grave corruption charges against BJP leaders in Himachal Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Karnataka. In last year’s assembly elections, the Congress wrested power from the BJP in Himachal Pradesh. Chhattisgarh and Karnataka go to the polls this year.

The BJP is in serious trouble in Karnataka, the only southern state where it is in power. Last year it eased out Chief Minister BS Yeddiyurappa, who had led it to victory in the state five years ago, following allegations of corruption. He has now floated a regional party, styled as Karnataka Janata Party, and is posing it a grave challenge.

The party faces dissension also in Rajasthan, another state where elections are due this year. A section of the central leadership wants to bring former chief minister Vijayaraje Scindia to the fore once again but there is strong opposition to her from within the state party.

Modi enjoys wide support among Hindutva elements, but his projection as prime ministerial candidate is sure to meet with strong opposition from sections within the BJP and the NDA in view of his alleged association with the anti-Muslim riots of 2002. The Janata Dal (United), the second largest NDA constituent, has repeatedly said that he is not acceptable.

The opinion poll also offers the BJP cause for despair. While it forecasts a rise in the NDA’s Lok Sabha strength from 159 to 203 and fall in the UPA’s from 259 to 157, the combined strength of other parties will go up from 125 to 183. It is they who will decide who should form the government.

The others are an odd assortment of small national parties with scattered pockets of influence and regional parties which are powerful in their respective areas. The leaders of some of these parties are known to have prime ministerial ambitions but the post-election scenario is likely to reduce their choice to one of going with either the Congress or the BJP. The moot question is who will be the beneficiary of their pragmatic approach. --Gulf Today, Sharjah, January 29, 2013.

A make-or-break move

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

The die is cast. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, under fire from advocates of globalisation at home and abroad for not going forward with reforms, last week announced a slew of measures which may determine the political future of his party and government.

The measures included cuts in subsidy on diesel and cooking gas, permitting foreign direct investment of up to 49 per cent in aviation, 51 per cent in multi-brand retail and 74 per cent in mobile television, direct-to-home, cable networks and teleports, and sale of shares of four public sector undertakings to raise Rs150 billion, which is half of the disinvestment target set for this year.

The broad sweep of the measures surprised friends and foes alike. The cut in diesel subsidy invited universal condemnation. The retail FDI was opposed by political parties of different shades, including the Trinamool Congress, which is the ruling United Progressive Alliance’s largest partner, and the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party, both of which support the government from outside. 

The Centre had cleared the retail FDI proposal in November last year but was forced to shelve it because of strong opposition from political parties, especially those that control the state governments, who argued it would hurt the small traders. In an attempt to mollify them, the states have now been given the freedom to keep foreign retailers out if they so wish.

The Centre has stated that foreign retailers can establish outlets only in cities with a population of more than one million. They must bring in a minimum investment of $100 million each and at least half of it must be in “back-end infrastructures,” a term which includes facilities for processing, manufacturing, distribution, design improvement, quality control, packaging, storage etc. Also, they must procure at least 30 per cent of their wares from small industries in the country.

These conditions, which the Centre claims will benefit farmers and small manufacturers, have not blunted the political parties’ opposition. West Bengal chief minister and Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee has threatened to take hard decisions unless the Centre rolled back the diesel price increase and retail FDI decision. The National Democratic Alliance, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party, and the Left parties and several other small national and regional parties, have called for nationwide work stoppage on Thursday in protest against the new measures.

The government has acted behind Parliament’s back. Since constitutional provisions or precedents do not require it to seek prior parliamentary approval for such decisions, it cannot be accused of improper conduct. However, since a UPA partner and at least two parties that support the government from outside are opposed to these measures, the question whether there is democratic sanction behind them is quite legitimate. Also, the constitutional principle of collective responsibility of the council of ministers has been compromised.

The prime minister and the Congress party have brushed aside the publicly voiced reservations of allies in the belief that they will not go so far as to pull down the government. They expect the Trinamool Congress, the SP and the BSP to stop short of withdrawing their support to the government. Reports that the TC may limit its response to pulling out its ministers and support the government from outside and that the SP and the BSP do not favour withdrawal of support to the government reinforce their optimism.

However, the prime minister and his Congress party cannot be sanguine about the government’s ability to have smooth passage in the Lok Sabha, whose term runs for another year and a half. Since the UPA has only 273 members in the 543-member Lok Sabha, they will be walking on the razor’s edge during the budget session, knowing a snap adverse vote can spell the government’s end.

The possibility of the Trinamool Congress and the Samajwadi Party, which registered convincing victories in the last Assembly elections in West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh respectively and entertain hopes of doing well in parliamentary elections, feeling tempted to ditch the Congress as its burden of incumbency grows cannot be ruled out.

Why then did Manmohan Singh take the plunge? The short answer is that he wanted to avert further downgrading of India by global rating agencies which will throw the faltering economy out of gear and end hopes of pushing up the growth rate which is now only around 5.5 per cent, the lowest in a decade. -- Gulf Today, Sharjah, September 18, 2012.

Perpetuation of inequality

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

An attempt to amend the Constitution to ensure fair representation for Dalits and Adivasis in the higher echelons of government service failed last week, revealing once again the hurdles in the path towards an equitable society.

The United Progressive Alliance government, which does not command the two-thirds majority needed for passage of a constitutional amendment, introduced the bill in the Rajya Sabha without mobilising the requisite support. The opposition National Democratic Alliance, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party, took no firm stand on the measure, confident that the government cannot go forward in the absence of a consensus.

A confrontation on the floor of the house between members of the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Samajwadi Party, both of whom support the UPA from outside, prevented discussion and adoption of the measure. Ironically, both the parties are champions of socially disadvantaged sections. The BSP, a Dalit party, wanted the bill to be passed but the SP, which draws support mainly from the other backward classes (OBCs) and Muslims, blocked it as these sections have been kept out of its purview.

Dalits and Adivasis, officially classified as the Scheduled Castes and the Scheduled Tribes respectively, comprise communities which were victims of the inhuman practice of “untouchability” for centuries. They have had the benefit of reservation in government service from 1950 when the Constitution came into force. The OBCs, too, have reservation but that came about under different circumstances and the system operates differently in their case.

To begin with, SC and ST reservation was limited to the entry stage. In 1955, the government provided for reservation in promotions, too, realising that these communities are not getting adequate representation at higher levels in the service. Thirty-seven years later, the Supreme Court ruled that reservation cannot be extended to cover promotions.

The government nullified the judgement through a constitutional amendment. After a couple of skirmishes over the provision, last April the Supreme Court struck it down saying the government must first demonstrate that the groups concerned remain backward and do not have adequate representation in the service and that provision of reservation will not result in loss of efficiency.

Reservation for members of the backward sections in government service and in school and college admissions was in force in some princely states like Kolhapur, Mysore and Travancore and the British-ruled Madras province before Independence. When the Constitution came into force, the judiciary held that such reservation offended its equality provisions. At the government’s instance parliament amended the Constitution to assert the state’s power to make special provisions for the socially and educationally backward sections.

For years this provision was used only for the limited purpose of protecting pre-Independence reservations. In 1989, VP Singh’s government, invoking it, extended reservation in government service to OBCs all over the country. While upholding the provision, the judiciary has circumscribed its application by ruling that the “creamy layer” of these communities is not eligible for reservation.

The central government has identified some sections of Muslims as backward, making them eligible for reservation. While the judiciary has accepted caste as a factor that can be taken into account while identifying socially and educationally backward sections, the relevance of religion in the process is still to be decided finally. The Andhra Pradesh high court recently struck down the state government’s decision to provide four per cent reservation for Muslims within the OBC quota on the ground that the sub-quota was fixed on religious lines and had no other intelligible basis.

There is difference in the approaches of the Executive and the Judiciary to the reservation issue. The former, under elected representatives, takes note of popular sentiments, and is therefore susceptible to charges of appeasing vote banks. The latter, dominated by beneficiaries of the old order, is susceptible to charges of not being sufficiently sensitive to the issue of social iniquity.

The suggestion that there is no evidence of inadequacy of SC and ST representation is ill-founded. Figures given to Parliament recently show that they are grossly under-represented in the higher echelons. What’s more, 25,037 posts meant for SCs and 28,173 meant for STs are lying vacant. These include both direct recruitment and promotion posts.

There is a strong anti-reservation lobby in the country consisting of people who benefited from the old order and want to retain the advantage it confers on them. They have used the merit argument to conceal the inequality of opportunity they are seeking to perpetuate. The Supreme Court has routinely endorsed this argument even though it is not substantiated by any empirical study. -- Gulf Today, September 11, 2012.

An eye to the 2014 poll

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

With the Congress party in deep trouble, foes are getting ready for the kill and friends are charting their own separate courses with an eye to the parliamentary elections, which is due in 2014 but can come sooner. The Samajwadi Party, which supports the government from outside, is exploring the possibility of reviving the third front.

The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance, now in the latter half of its second five-year term, has been assailed by one scandal after another in the last two years. Just as it was sighing with relief over the split in Anna Hazare’s team, which had brought corruption to the top of the nation’s agenda, a scandal relating to coal mining contracts made headlines.

The coal scam, like the scandal relating to allocation of second generation (2G) spectrum, was brought to light by the Comptroller and Auditor General, the constitutional authority mandated to scrutinise government accounts. The CAG estimated that allotment of mining licences without auction had resulted in a loss of Rs1,830 billion to the exchequer. That made ‘Coalgate’ bigger than the 2G scam in which the loss was put at Rs1,766 billion.

The Congress was able to shift the focus in the 2G scam to the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam of Tamil Nadu, its second largest partner in the UPA, as its nominee, A Raja, was the Communications Minister during the relevant period. The opposition could only charge the Congress and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh with failure to rein it in. Raja and Kanimozhi, MP and daughter of DMK chief M Karunanidhi, are now facing corruption charges in a court, along with some senior officials.

In the present scandal the spotlight is on the prime minister as the coal ministry was in the hands of the Congress party throughout and Manmohan Singh himself was in charge for some time. The Bharatiya Janata Party has stalled the proceedings of both houses of Parliament for more than a week demanding the prime minister’s resignation. It has turned down the government’s offer to discuss the CAG report in Parliament and vowed to carry the fight into the streets.

The procedure laid down in the Constitution provides for scrutiny of CAG reports by Parliament’s Public Accounts Committee. Any discussion in Parliament or action by the government on the report can only come after that. This procedure has been derailed on a few occasions since the CAG report on the corruption in the deal with the Swedish arms dealer Bofors for purchase of howitzers when Rajiv Gandhi was prime minister.

The combined opposition was able to force a probe by a joint parliamentary committee into the Bofors deal and the Central Bureau of Investigation conducted criminal investigation for years but no one could be brought to book. TN Chaturvedi, the CAG who produced the Bofors report, later became a BJP member of Parliament. Some observers believe Coalgate may go the Bofors way.

As in the case of the 2G scam, the Congress party’s first response to the CAG report was to deny there had been loss of revenue. Later a party spokesman accused the CAG, Vinod Rai, of harbouring political ambitions.

With opinion polls indicating that the Congress is going downhill and that its own fortunes are improving, the BJP is trying to force the government to quit and clear the way for early elections. With this end in view it is considering the possibility of mass resignation of opposition MPs. What is holding it back is the reluctance of some of its National Democratic Alliance partners to go the whole hog with it.

At one stage, the Congress itself was considering the possibility of early parliamentary elections as the drought spell in some parts of the country is likely to add to its difficulties later on. Its leadership, however, appears to be in a state of paralysis. It has not been able to take any meaningful steps to refurbish the image of the party and the government ahead of the elections.

The opinion polls show that as things now stand the BJP can hope to replace the Congress as the largest single party in the NDA as the largest single pre-poll alliance. But the indications are that they are getting only a part of the voters who are deserting the Congress. The bulk of them are moving towards the smaller national or regional parties. However, revival of the third front will not be easy. The Communist Party of India-Marxist, which played the midwife under similar circumstances in the past, is no longer in a position to do so. --Gulf Today, September 4, 2012.

Waiting for sonrise

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

As heir apparent of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, Rahul Gandhi could have claimed a place in the government any time since the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance returned to power in 2004. However, he was content to remain a low-key general secretary of the party and turned down suggestions from partymen to enter the government.

Last week, dropping the reluctant bridegroom posture, he expressed readiness to play a proactive role in both party and government. A decision had been taken, and it was for his mother and party president Sonia Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to decide when to give effect to it, he said.

He is now expected to be inducted into the Council of Ministers at the earliest, possibly before Parliament reassembles next month. That will give him the opportunity to gain governmental experience before being projected as the party’s prime ministerial candidate in the Lok Sabha elections due in 2014.

Barring a couple of short interludes, the Congress party’s leadership since Independence has been in the hands of the Nehru-Gandhi family. Sonia Gandhi was not inclined to enter politics after her husband Rajiv’s assassination but eventually gave in to pressure from Congressmen who needed a Gandhi at the helm to hold them together.

She was the party’s choice for the prime minister’s post when it was in a position to stake a claim to form the government but she stood down, realising her Italian origin was a political liability. It was widely believed even at that stage that Manmohan Singh, whom she nominated for the post, will be replaced in due course by her son.

Rahul Gandhi has been a member of parliament for eight years and a general secretary of the party for four years but he is yet to emerge as a leader in his own right. Few believe that he has used the time at his disposal well and equipped himself to shoulder the onerous responsibilities that await him.

It is difficult to identify an occasion when he made a mark in parliament or played a significant role in backstage political negotiations. The party has been beset with serious problems but it is difficult to pinpoint any contribution he made to their resolution.

This is not to suggest that he was remiss in making use of opportunities. He has curbed factionalism in the state units of the party’s youth and student affiliates by evolving a formula under which the larger faction’s nominee becomes the president and the smaller faction’s nominee the vice-president. The formula has a fatal weakness: it perpetuates factionalism instead of eliminating it.

His efforts to rebuild the party in Uttar Pradesh, the family’s original base, have met with only limited success. It still ranks fourth, after the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party, in the state which sends the largest contingent of 80 members to the 574-member Lok Sabha.

However, the responsibility for the failures on the organisational front rests mainly with Sonia Gandhi, who has done nothing to end factionalism in the 16 years since she assumed stewardship of the party. She has also not taken any steps to revive the dysfunctional party apparatus. Valuing personal loyalty more than leadership qualities, she has chosen to work with a bunch of colourless men incapable of infusing dynamism in the party.

While Rahul Gandhi has evinced a keen interest in the problems of the common man, who figures prominently in the party’s electoral calculations, he is yet to demonstrate a capacity to formulate concrete steps to address their problems and push them into the government’s agenda. 

Since the national political spectrum is extremely fragmented, coalition governments will be the order of the day for a long time to come. The situation calls for a set of leaders who can deal with the small parties tactfully as well as firmly. Manmohan Singh has been a failure in this regard. Rahul Gandhi will do well to develop the skills needed to manage troublesome partners.

The fight against corruption is an area where the Congress party and the government have been found wanting. Rahul Gandhi’s speech in the Lok Sabha during the debate on the Lok Pal Bill showed he is aware of the gravity of the issue. It may be the issue which ultimately determines his political future.

The rising great-grandson can learn a lesson from Jawaharlal Nehru’s eloquent words: “Success often goes to those who dare and act. It seldom goes to the coward.” -- Gulf Today, Sharjah, July 24, 2012.

There is a time to tell

To Time magazine, the good Indians are the ones who are dead or have migrated to the West

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

More than six decades after the yoke of colonialism was lifted, many educated Indians yearn for Western approbation and are disturbed by foreign criticism.

Last week US newsmagazine Time upset many Indians by carrying in its Asian edition a cover story which described Prime Minister Manmohan Singh as an ‘underachiever’ and a ‘man in shadow’. It listed the many challenges the United Progressive Alliance government faces under his leadership such as economic slowdown, fiscal deficit and falling rupee, and asked whether he was up to the job.

The magazine said inflation and corruption had diminished voter confidence in Manmohan Singh. The crux of its criticism, however, lay elsewhere: Singh, it said, was unwilling to stick his neck out on economic reforms.

The report reflected the sentiments of the United States administration which is seeking new opportunities in India for American businessmen since conditions at home continue to be gloomy. It is unhappy over the Manmohan Singh government’s inability to deliver on the promise to let Wal-Mart in by throwing open the retail sector to foreign investors.

If there was any doubt in anyone’s mind on the source of the magazine’s concerns, President Barack Obama removed it soon afterwards by voicing his administration’s feelings directly in an interview given to an Indian news agency. He specifically mentioned the issue of foreign direct investment in retail business.

The UPA government had put the issue of FDI in retail business on hold because of stiff opposition from the Trinamool Congress, a coalition partner.

The Time report drew the ire of the Congress party, which heads the UPA. Its official spokesman said that in the last eight years, under Manmohan Singh’s leadership, the government had provided political stability, social harmony, internal cohesion and economic growth and assumed a greater role in global affairs. “This by no stretch of imagination is underachievement,” he added.

The Bharatiya Janata Party, which heads the opposition National Democratic Alliance, which is hoping to ride back to power on an anti-incumbency wave, was pleased with the Time story which berated Manmohan Singh. Doubly so, since it had earlier featured one of its leaders, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, a prime ministerial hopeful, on the cover, depicting him as a man who means business.

Endorsing the magazine’s criticism, the BJP spokesman said Manmohan Singh had only sent a message of disillusionment, corruption and leaderless economy. However, the party’s top leaders in Madhya Pradesh rejected the partisan approach and took a patriotic line. “The Prime Minister of India does not need a certificate from Time magazine,” said Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan. State BJP president Prabhat Jha added, “No foreign magazine has the right to look down upon the Prime Minister of India.”

Several Indian commentators agreed with the magazine that Manmohan Singh had failed to tackle issues like corruption. However, they generally threw the blame for his failures on Congress president Sonia Gandhi, who holds the political strings. Some of them envisaged the possibility of Manmohan Singh getting more elbow room with the exit of Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, who was seen as holding back reform measures for political reasons.

Time, which pioneered a journalistic school whose strength lies not in unearthing new information but repackaging old ones, had started taking interest in Indian affairs long before the era of globalisation dawned. Freedom fighters Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi, Jawaharlal Nehru, Subhash Chandra Bose and Vallabhbhai Patel had figured on its cover in the pre-Independence days.

In the Cold War years, as a media partner of the US establishment, it was a strong critic of India’s non-alignment policy, and VK Krishna Menon, who was its chief exponent at the United Nations, was its bête noir. Angered by its writings, Menon’s ardent admirers once tricked it into publishing a letter under false names expressing appreciation of its stand. Only after the issue hit the stands did the magazine learn that the names it printed were obscenities in the Hindi language.

To Time, the good Indians are the ones who are dead or have migrated to the West. Its obituaries on Nehru and Indira Gandhi were among the best carried by any publication, Indian or foreign. They extolled the many virtues of the departed leaders which had not found a place in its coverage when they were alive. Manmohan Singh can seek comfort in the thought that Time has not found nice things to tell because the time has not come: after all he is still around in flesh and blood.-- Gulf Today, Sharjah, July 16, 2012.

Uncertainty in politics

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

India’s major national parties are in the throes of crisis. Their internal problems may have their impact on developments at the national and state levels in the months ahead.

The Congress, which heads the ruling United Progressive Alliance government, has lost its second most important Cabinet minister, Pranab Mukherjee, having picked him as its candidate in the presidential election to be held this month.

An astute politician, Mukherjee was perhaps the one most qualified to be the prime minister. Congress President Sonia Gandhi having chosen Manmohan Singh, a non-politician, for the post, it fell to him to handle sensitive negotiations. Apart from being finance minister, he was chairman of most of the Cabinet committees.

The prime minister’s decision to keep the finance portfolio with himself and to distribute the chairmanship of Cabinet committees among several senior ministers testifies to the paucity of talent in the party’s higher echelons.

Mukherjee has the support of several parties outside the UPA, including the Janata Dal (United) and the Shiv Sena, which are constituents of the rival National Democratic Alliance. The Congress party’s largest partner, the Trinamool Congress, has set its face against his candidature, but he is set to win, thanks to the wide measure of support from outside the UPA.

So far there is nothing to indicate that the switch of loyalties by some partners of UPA and NDA in the presidential election signals the beginning of a realignment of forces at the national level.

Most Congressmen regard Sonia Gandhi’s son, Rahul Gandhi, who is general secretary of the party, as a future prime minister. His attempts to rejuvenate the party in Uttar Pradesh, the original home of the Nehru Gandhi dynasty, have not been a success. However, no one in the party sees it as a reason to delay his induction as a minister and eventual elevation as prime minister.

While Sonia Gandhi can easily bring about changes at the national level, she finds the going tough at the state level. In Andhra Pradesh, the largest state where the Congress still has primacy, the revolt by family members and followers of former Chief Minister YS Rajasekhara Reddy has administered the party a rude shock.

The party’s top leaders in Maharashtra are under the shadow of scams. In Kerala, the caste and religious forces on which the party has relied for sustenance have become an acute source of embarrassment.        

The Bharatiya Janata Party, which heads the NDA, too, is facing serious troubles. Since its long-time prime minister-in-waiting Lal Kishen Advani is too old to be in the reckoning, a frantic search is on for a new candidate.

The Hindu rightwing Rashtreeya Swayamsevak Sangh, the power behind the party, wants Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi to be projected as the presidential candidate. Nitin Gadkari, whom the RSS pitch forked into the party chairmanship some time ago, has started preparing the ground to bring Modi to the national stage. Young parliamentarians like Sushama Swaraj and Arun Jaitley, who lead the party in the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha respectively, resent the move.

The RSS can smother all opposition to Modi from within the BJP but it will have a hard time selling his candidature to the NDA constituents as he bears the odium of having presided over the 2002 pogromme against Muslims in Gujarat. The Janata Dal (U) has made it known its opposition to Modi in no uncertain terms.

Like the Congress, the BJP, too, faces internal problems in its strongholds. In Karnataka, BS Yeddyurappa, who was forced out of chief ministership in the wake of grave corruption charges, is seeking the ouster of his successor, DV Sadananda Gowda. Former Rajasthan Chief Minister Vajayaraje Scindia, who is hoping to stage a comeback riding the anti-incumbency wave against the Congress government, is encountering opposition from a dissident faction.

The Left parties, which once played a role far in excess of their natural strength in times of political uncertainty, are no longer significant actors on the national stage. The largest of them, the Communist Party of India-Marxist, is in deep trouble in its traditional strongholds. The Trinamool Congress, which put an end to its unbroken stewardship of the West Bengal government for 33 years, is making it difficult for the party to rebuild its shattered base. In Kerala, several CPI-M leaders are in custody in connection with murder cases being investigated by the state police and the Central Bureau of Investigation.-- Gulf Today, Sharjah, July 3, 2012.

Quest for a new President

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

India is looking for a successor to President Pratibha Patil, whose five-year term ends next month. Although the office of the head of state is largely ceremonial, the current quest has special significance since the new president may be able to influence the choice of the next prime minister.   

The main contenders for power at the national level, the Congress, which heads the ruling United Progressive Alliance, and the Bharatiya Janata Party, which heads the opposition National Democratic Alliance, are, therefore, moving warily.

Nominations will open on June 13 and close on June 20 but the UPA and NDA are yet to choose their candidates. The BJP has said it will take a position only after the Congress reveals its mind.

The electoral college that chooses the president comprises elected members of the two houses of parliament, who number about 800, and elected members of the legislative assemblies of the states, whose number runs into several thousand. The values of the votes of the MPs and MLAs differ widely since they are pegged to the number of people they represent.

In the early years of the republic, the Congress could get its nominee elected smoothly as it dominated both parliament and the state legislatures.  With the political spectrum highly fragmented, it now needs the support of not only its coalition partners but also a few more parties to see its nominee through.

There have been occasions when the major political rivals joined hands to facilitate smooth election, as when a wide consensus emerged in 1997 in favour of KR Narayanan, a diplomat-turned-politician, making it possible for the distinguished Dalit to become the first member of that marginalised community to adorn the nation’s highest office.

Five years ago, Pratibha Patil’s candidature generated much enthusiasm across the political spectrum as it provided an opportunity to install the first woman president. At that time the Left parties, who were backing the UPA government from outside, extracted from the Congress a promise to consider a person of their choice for the post of vice-president. They picked retired diplomat Hamid Ansari.

Some vice-presidents have been elected president. The BJP blocked serious consideration of Ansari’s candidature for the office this time by making known its opposition in advance. Apparently to stave off charges of communal motivation, the Hindu right-wing party floated the name of former president APJ Abdul Kalam.

The BJP’s fondness for Kalam rests on his reputation as the man who headed the country’s missile programme. Its proposal that he be brought back had no takers. Barring the first president, Rajendra Prasad, no one has had a second term so far.

The constitution mandates that the president must act on the advice of the council of ministers headed by the prime minister. But the appointment of prime minister is a decision he has to take on his own.

When a party or combination of parties commands an absolute majority in the Lok Sabha, the President has no option but to invite its leader to form the government. However, recent parliamentary elections have invariably thrown up ‘hung’ houses.

Since the Left parties withdrew their support to the first Manmohan Singh government on the issue of civil nuclear agreement with the United States, the UPA has survived in office with the support extended from outside by a host of parties like the Bahujan Samaj Party, the Samajwadi Party and the Rashtriya Janata Dal.

State Assembly elections of the last five years point to a weakening of the Congress and its allies like Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam of Tamil Nadu. In the circumstances, the strength of the UPA may well be depleted in the Lok Sabha elections of 2014. The Congress, however, can derive comfort from the fact that the BJP and its NDA allies are also not on a strong wicket. In several states, the Congress and the BJP are already minor players.

In the circumstances, the smaller national parties and the regional parties will be able to play a critical role in the next Lok Sabha. The leaders of some of these parties are known to entertain ambitions of emerging as prime ministerial candidates.

If there is room to doubt the majority claims of the rival contenders, the president will be required to exercise discretion based on his/her assessment of who is in a position to garner majority support in the house. Many small parties may be inclined to go with whoever is given the first opportunity to form a government. The situation demands the president must be a person with mature political judgment. -- Gulf Today, Sharjah, June 12, 2012.

Economy at a crossroads

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

Is the Indian dream fading? With the growth rate sliding, the rupee falling and the stock market going for a spin, this question is being raised within the country and abroad.

Last week a foreign news agency quoted a spokesman of India Inc as saying, “We have a full-blown crisis on our hands.” In a report which painted a picture of a paralysed political leadership and a drifting economy, the agency also quoted former US envoy Tim Roemer as saying the American business community was “increasingly frustrated and fatigued by flip-flops and roll-backs and reversals of decisions.”

Both were batting for acceleration of the globalisation process which has been on hold for some time in the face of strong opposition from some of the Congress party’s allies in the ruling United Progressive Alliance. Foreign and domestic business interests argue that more reform is the answer to India’s current problems but the experience of the fully globalised economies does not bear this out.

India emerged without major injury from the global economic meltdown of 2007 primarily because reform measures had not gone so far as to draw it deep into the financial convulsions of the time.  Foreign investors found it an attractive market and the economy continued to grow at a fast pace.

The scenario has changed somewhat since then. Last month the global agency Standard & Poor’s lowered India’s sovereign credit rating outlook from “stable” to “negative”, citing concerns over rising fiscal deficit and debt burden and lower growth rate.

Officials point out that there has been no general downgrading of credit rating and that the outlook on long-term ratings has in fact been revised from “negative” to “stable”. However, fears that foreign investors may shy away persist.

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, who attributes the current difficulties to the Eurozone downturn, says the government has noted the concerns and is taking steps to strengthen and sustain robust economic growth.     

Advocates of accelerated reform attribute the government’s reluctance to move forward to differences between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the Finance Minister. They believe Manmohan Singh, who, as Finance Minister, began the process of dismantling the controlled economic system, is willing to go forward but Pranab Mukherjee, who is a pragmatic politician, is holding the government back.

The country no doubt is facing a serious situation. At the end of the last financial year the fiscal deficit stood at Rs522 billion. While the government’s income rose by only 36 per cent in the previous five years the deficit shot up by 312 per cent. The trade deficit mounted to $185 billion. The rupee fell to 54.91 against the dollar, the lowest level so far.

Many believe a slight fall in the value of the rupee was necessary as a corrective measure but with importers buying up dollars to hedge against the global uncertainty the decline has gone way beyond the desirable level. Everybody is looking up to the government and the central bank to intervene and arrest the slide but they have to move cautiously lest they should add to inflation, which is already running high.

Foreign and domestic corporate interests consider the situation ripe to press home the International Monetary Fund’s proposal to cut subsidies. When they talk of subsidies, they have in mind the subsidies on food, fertilisers and petroleum products like diesel, kerosene and cooking gas, which by and large benefit the poor and the middle class. They overlook the subsidies that benefit the affluent, which are a bigger drain on the economy than those that benefit the poor.

In the most recent budget, food, fertiliser and petroleum subsidies add up to a mere Rs2,163 billion. The subsidies to the rich, which figure in the document under the head “revenue foregone”, total Rs4,373 billion. The figure includes customs duty waiver of Rs1,953 billion, excise duty waiver of Rs1,691 billion and corporate income tax waiver of Rs729 billion.

In 2008, corporate tax in India was only 17.3 per cent while it ranged between 20.7 per cent and 37.0 per cent in the other BRICS states and between 30 per cent and 50 per cent in the developed economies. Since then it has come down to 14.7 per cent. Is it any wonder that India is producing billionaires faster than any other country?

Emergent India is at a crossroads. It has to decide whether to follow the route that landed the developed economies in the throes of crisis or furrow a new path taking into account its special circumstances. It will be disastrous to let less than one per cent walk away with undue gains and heap new burdens and make life more difficult for more than 99 per cent.--Gulf Today, Sharjah, May 22, 2012.

Decline of national parties

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

Indian democracy is in a state of transition. The decline of the national parties has created a situation which encourages the regional parties to play an increasingly assertive role.

The National Democratic Alliance, headed by Bharatiya Janata Party leader Atal Behari Vajpayee, which was in power from 1999 to 2004, was a coalition of more than 20 parties. It was able to complete the five-year term. The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance, which replaced it, too, was able to complete its term even though it had to rely upon some parties which were not members of the coalition for survival.

With two of the Congress party’s major partners in a rebellious mood there is speculation on the ability of the second UPA government, which is now in its third year, to complete its term.

Since the All India Trinamool Congress ousted West Bengal’s Left Front government, headed by the Communist Party of India-Marxist, which had been in power continuously for more than 33 years, last year its mercurial leader, Mamata Banerjee, has been throwing her weight around much to the discomfiture of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

Her opposition has forced the central government to go easy on the globalisation programme. She is among the chief ministers who have come out strongly against the central government’s move to set up a national anti-terrorism centre, arguing it goes against the federal character of the republic.

Last week she embarrassed the Prime Minister by demanding the immediate replacement of her party man Dinesh Trivedi as Railway Minister who earned her hostility by proposing to revise railway fares and freight charges.

As party chief, Mamata Banerjee undoubtedly has the right to decide who should represent the Trinamool Congress in the Central government. The Prime Minister cannot, therefore, reject her demand. He is, therefore, confining his efforts to persuade her to let Trivedi stay until Parliament approves the Railway Budget which he introduced.

The Trinamool Congress, which has 19 members in the Lok Sabha, is the UPA’s second largest constituent. Its pullout from the coalition will not bring down the government. However, the Congress party has to factor in the mood of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, the third largest constituent with 18 members in the Lok Sabha.

The DMK has been sulking ever since its Cabinet ministers, A Raja and Dayanidhi Maran, were hauled up by the Central Bureau of Investigation to face criminal charges in connection with the 2G spectrum allocation scam. Kanimozhi, DMK MP and daughter of party chief and former Tamil Nadu chief minister M Karunanidhi, also figures as an accused in one of the cases.

If the Trinamool Congress and the DMK combine forces the UPA’s parliamentary majority may be in peril. However, political observers believe the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party, which have 23 seats and 19 seats respectively, will be willing to sustain the UPA in office.

The SP and the BSP are already extending support to the UPA government from outside. The BSP was in power in Uttar Pradesh when the present UPA government took office. In last month’s Assembly elections, the SP ousted it from power. Though rivals in UP, the two parties have developed a common interest in the UPA’s continuance in office at the Centre.

The Congress, which had a vote share of 28.55 per cent in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, and the BJP, which had a vote share of 18.80 per cent, are the largest national parties. The BSP, with a vote share of 6.17 per cent and the CPI-M, with a vote share of 5.33, are way behind them.

The UP Assembly elections have been a damper to the Congress and the BJP, both of which failed to improve their support base. If the electoral outcome is taken as early indication of the emergence of a two-party system in the state, it means the major national parties are doomed to remain in the fourth and third positions respectively in this state, which accounts for 80 of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha.

The CPI-M, which played a catalytic role in the formation of non-Congress governments at the Centre in the past, believes the time is ripe to revive its idea of a third front.

Some opposition parties have called for fresh parliamentary elections in the wake of the Congress party’s poor performance in UP, but they do not appear to be serious about it. The Congress certainly is in no great shape but then there is nothing to indicate that an early poll will benefit its opponents, including the BJP and the CPI-M.--Gulf Today, Sharjah, March 19, 2012.

Retail FDI rocks UPA

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

Barely a fortnight after deciding to allow 51 per cent foreign direct investment in multi-brand retail ventures and to remove the cap on single-brand ones, the Indian government is struggling to find a way forward in the face of opposition not only from outside but also from within the ruling United Progressive Alliance.

Parliament has not been able to transact any business for days as a determined opposition has held up all proceedings demanding discussion on the subject. Retail trade associations, backed by parties and trade unions, have organised protest strikes.

India was under pressure from the United States since long to open up the retail sector to foreign investors. American retail major Wal-Mart has been waiting at the doorstep, hoping to repeat its success in China.

The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance, which was in power from 1998 to 2004, considered a proposal to allow 100% FDI in the sector but did not go ahead with it. In his first term, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh could not take up the issue since the Left parties on whom his government depended for survival in Parliament were opposed to FDI in retail trade.

Manmohan Singh probably assumed that the main opposition, the BJP, will create no problems on the FDI issue since it had followed the path of globalisation while in power. However, it has come out strongly against the decision.

The government has spent the last few days trying to hard-sell the decision with arguments about the benefits it will bestow. It claims the entry of retail chains like Wal-Mart will create new jobs, improve supply chains and benefit consumers by promoting competition. It also says farmers and small producers will benefit from the decision as the chains will be required to buy 30 per cent of their requirements locally. The farmers will be able to sell directly to the chains and thus free themselves from the stranglehold of middlemen.

The government has received powerful support from spokesmen of commerce and industry, who view the decision as a step forward in the policy of liberalisation, of which they are both promoters and beneficiaries.

The Consortium of Indian Farmers Association has hailed the decision, saying it will benefit 600 million traders and 1,200 million consumers. However, it wants the government to make it mandatory for retailers to buy 75 per cent of their produce directly from farmers.

Large sections of the media have also lent support to the government and sought to allay fears that the big fish will swallow small ones. They point out that Indian retail chains have been active for some years without displacing small traders. One scribe claimed that the misgivings voiced when companies like Coca-Cola, KFC and McDonald entered have been proved wrong. They are now as Indian as any local company, and are contributing to the national economy, he said.

Industrial and commercial interests, however, are not united on the issue. Traders’ enthusiastic participation in the protest action shows many of them are apprehensive about the future. About 90 per cent of all Indian entrepreneurs are said to be retailers.

The government has said there is no question of reversing the retail FDI decision. However, it is in a fix as two coalition partners, the Trinamool Congress (19 seats, all from West Bengal) and Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (18 seats, all from Tamil Nadu), have publicly opposed the decision. Without them the UPA will be in a minority.

The Trinamool Congress and the DMK do not want to bring the government down on this issue. However, democratic decency demands that the Prime Minister must acknowledge that the decision does not command the support of the parliamentary majority and pull back.

Perhaps the time has also come for Manmohan Singh to take a fresh look at his economic ideas. When, as Finance Minister, he led India into the path of liberalisation 20 years ago, the US-dominated globalisation drive was on a winning streak. The Soviet Union and its European satellites had collapsed, and China, which had switched to market economy in 1978, had registered good progress.

The crisis gripping the West underscores the undesirability of total reliance on the market, which, contrary to the assertions of the reform school, is not a free forum but one subject to constant manipulation by the rich. The rising inflation in the country is a sign of the progress of an affluent minority, not of India, as Manmohan Singh recently observed. A system that works in the interest of a minority is not a viable option for a country like India. -- Gulf Today, Sharjah, December 5, 2011.

On a fast track to power

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

Parliamentary elections are not due in India until May 2014 but the race for the prime minister’s post is already on. Two prime ministerial aspirants belonging to the opposition — Bharatiya Janata Party, former Deputy Prime Minister Lal Krishna Advani and Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi — have started running, presumably envisaging the possibility of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government, battered by corruption charges, collapsing before its five-year term ends.

It is widely believed that former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s son, Rahul, who is a Member of Parliament and general secretary of the Congress, will be that party’s prime ministerial candidate. Given the Nehru-Gandhi family’s sway over the party, he is unlikely to encounter any opposition from within.

The BJP had headed the National Democratic Alliance government that ruled for six years. It sought a fresh mandate for Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee in 2004 with the slogan “India Shining” but was turned down. After Vajpayee stepped down, the party made another bid for power in 2009 projecting Advani as its prime ministerial candidate. It was again turned down.

Lately the party has been preparing for life beyond Advani, who will be 84 in November. It picked Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley, both in their late 50s, to lead the party in the two houses of Parliament and the Hindu rightwing Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the fountainhead of its political ideology, pitchforked Nitin Gadkari, 54, into the party president’s chair.

A few days ago Advani announced he would go on a Rath Yatra (chariot ride) shortly to highlight the issue of corruption. Political observers viewed it as an indication that age has not withered his prime ministerial ambition.

Narendra Modi began a three-day fast “to promote communal harmony, peace and unity”on Saturday, his 61st birthday. Critics saw it as an attempt to live down the ignominy of having presided over the communal riots of 2002 and improve his image in preparation for a bid for the prime minister’s post.

Two senior police officers of Gujarat had stated that when riots broke out following the burning of a rail coach carrying RSS volunteers at Godhra station, which resulted in 59 deaths, Modi had asked the force to give Hindus time to vent their anger against Muslims. A special investigation team set up by the Supreme Court to look into the riot cases reportedly found no evidence to prosecute him but a court-appointed lawyer differed with it.

Last week the apex court left it to the trial court to examine the report and decide whether or not to register a case against Modi. He and the rest of the BJP leadership claimed this amounted to rejection of the allegations against him.

Both Advani and Modi are close to the RSS and if called upon to choose between them it may pick the younger one for the prime minister’s post. Advani was present when Modi began his fast and, in a speech that was high on rhetoric and low on fact, said, “All NDA ruled states are examples of good governance and Gujarat was showing the results of being a corruption-free state.”

Modi’s quest for a fast track to New Delhi comes in the wake of reports that US analysts believe there has been a precipitous decline in the Congress party’s fortunes following corruption scandals and the BJP may come to power with Modi as the prime minister.

In 2009, the Congress had emerged as the largest party in the 543-member Lok Sabha winning 206 seats with 28.55% of the votes polled. The BJP secured 116 seats with 18.80% of the votes. It is reasonable to assume that the Congress party’s fortunes have declined since then but there is nothing to indicate that the BJP’s support base has grown.

If the next election is fought on the issue of corruption, the BJP will be at as much disadvantage as the Congress. Modi had fought shy of appointing a Lokayukta to deal with corruption charges. Last month (Gujarat) Governor Kamla Beniwal made an appointment without waiting for advice from the Cabinet. Recently the party’s national leadership had replaced its Chief Ministers in Karnataka and Uttarakhand who faced serious allegations.

The lesson that the emergence of a civil society group headed by Anna Hazare as the central government’s chief adversary holds is that the people are disillusioned with the ruling dispensation as well as the opposition. -- Gulf Today, Sharjah, September 19, 2011

Early signs of bipolar trend at national level

B.R.P. BHASKAR
IANS

The story of how the electorate belied political prophesies and made smooth government formation possible after the Lok Sabha elections deserves close scrutiny because it contains early intimations of a new trend.

Even the best scenario visualised by pollsters had left the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA), widely acknowledged as the frontrunner, far short of a simple majority in the 545-member house. Some experts suggested the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), a close runner-up, might be in a better position than the UPA to attract support from other parties and raise the tally to 273, needed to chalk up a majority.

As it happened, the UPA was only 10 short of the magic figure. This shortfall was small enough to be made up without placating Prakash Karat, Mayawati, J. Jayalalithaa, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Lalu Prasad, not to mention Nitish Kumar, who too turned up at the auction room.

The voters had so exercised their franchise that the so-called third and fourth fronts were left with no bargaining power at all. The worst sufferers were the reunited Yadavs, who had adopted a strategy calculated to enhance their capability by limiting the Congress party's strength.

This is not the first time that the Indian electorate has demonstrated an uncanny ability to brush aside political gibberish and arrive at the best possible verdict in the circumstances. Millions of voters, taking independent decisions in the privacy of their minds, had given expression to a common will when they voted out Indira Gandhi's emergency regime in 1977. They displayed the same determination again when, sickened by the Janata Party squabbles, they recalled Indira Gandhi.

The 1977 and 1980 verdicts can be explained in terms of a wide swing of the pendulum. The Congress party's vote share had dropped from 43.68 percent in 1971 to 34.52 percent in 1977, sweeping it out of office. It climbed to 42.69 percent in 1980 and the party was back in power.

There was no big swing this time. Provisional figures released by the Election Commission show that the Congress party's share increased slightly from 26.53 percent to 28.55 percent and the BJP's declined slightly from 22.16 percent to 18.80 percent. These changes may be sufficient to explain the rise in the Congress' strength from 145 to 206 and the fall in the BJP's from 138 to 116, but not to understand the way the electorate resolved the national conundrum.

It was the rise of regional parties and the vaulting ambitions of their leaders which had raised fears that government formation might not be easy. There was no appreciable change in the popularity of the national parties and the regional parties. In 2004, the national parties (those recognized as such by the Election Commission) together commanded 62.89 percent of the votes. This time their share was 62.32 percent.

The combined vote of the Congress and the BJP declined from 48.69 percent to 47.35 percent. The decline was too small for the Left parties to realise their pet dream of keeping both of them out of power. Communist Party of India (CPI) general secretary A.B. Bardhan's forecast that the Congress and the BJP together would not win even 250 seats went awry. Actually they increased their combined strength from 283 to 312.

The electorate made government formation easy by eliminating the bargaining capacity of the ambitious leaders of the smaller parties. It rebuffed the sponsors of the Third Front, who wanted to hold the major national parties at bay. The Communist Party of India-Marxist lost 27 seats and the CPI six.

The voters meted out harsh punishment to the Yadavs who had cynically indulged in a game of self-aggrandizement. The Rashtriya Janata Dal of Lalu Prasad lost 20 seats and the Samajwadi Party of Mulayam Singh Yadav lost 13 seats. Their ally, Lok Janshakti Party of Ram Vilas Paswan, lost all its four seats.

The election results provide early intimations of a bipolar trend. A tendency towards a bipolar polity is already in evidence in several states. It is the emergence of diverse forces in the different states that has made coalitions at the centre inevitable.

The parties which aligned themselves with either of the major national parties did well. Those ranged on the side of the Congress benefited the most. The Trinamool Congress in West Bengal made a whopping gain of 17 seats. Going by the winner-takes-all pattern witnessed in Tamil Nadu in recent years, Jayalalithaa's AIADMK should have made a clean sweep this time. Anticipating such a development, the well-known electoral weather cocks, Vaiko's Marumalarchi DMK and S. Ramadoss' PMK switched to her side. The results were disastrous: while the PMK lost all its six seats, the MDMK managed to save one of its four seats.

Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's poll eve vacillation notwithstanding, the Janata Dal-United, BJP's partner in the NDA, fared well in Bihar. The only Third Front party to buck the bipolar trend was Orissa's Biju Janata Dal.