Moving from poll to poll

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

The Bharatiya Janata Party has been celebrating its modest gains in the recently concluded Assembly elections in three States and one Union Territory to dispel the popular impression that the Modi magic ended with last year’s setback in Bihar.

As Prime Minister Narendra Modi completes two years in office, with development failing to create jobs, there is a pressing need to boost the morale of the rank and file which slumped following failure to bring Bihar under BJP’s control. Especially so since seven states, including Uttar Pradesh, the most populous one, and Modi’s own Gujarat, are due to go to the polls next year.

The states of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Assam and the Union Territory of Puducherry, which figured in the election calendar, together account for 116 of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha. In the 2014 parliamentary elections, the BJP could bag only 10 of them. It picked up half of Assam’s 14 seats but got only two out of West Bengal’s 42 and one out of Tamil Nadu’s 39. It drew a blank in Kerala, which has 20 seats. Its regional ally picked up Puducherry’s lone seat.

Modi attached great importance to the Assembly elections in these states, and drew up plans to boost the BJP’s prospects with the help of new allies. The services of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh cadres were requisitioned.

The plan succeeded only in Assam. This was the smallest of the four states and the only one where the BJP and the Congress were in a direct contest for power. The BJP was able to oust the Congress government headed by Tarun Gogoi, which had been in office for 15 years at a stretch, and seize power for the first time in an eastern state.

The BJP won by precipitating a sharp polarisation on religious lines in the state, which has an ethnically diverse population. The party’s Hindu vote share shot up from 43 per cent to 63 per cent, while the Congress’s declined from 30 per cent to 25 per cent.

Muslims constitute a third of Assam’s population. Their number has been rising at a higher rate than that of the Hindus from one census to the next. While the community’s higher birth rate accounts for this partly, the BJP has been attributing it mainly to illegal migration from Bangladesh. Sarbananda Sonowal, the new Chief Minister, has vowed to seal the borders to prevent infiltration.

Both the Congress and the BJP were small players in the large states of West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. The regional parties ruling these states, led by charismatic women, won a second term.

Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress had stormed into power in West Bengal in 2011, putting an end to more than three decades of rule by the Left Front, headed by the Communist Party of India (Marxist). Now in a debilitated state, the CPI (M) entered into an informal alliance with the even more debilitated Congress. They could not prevent Mamata Banerjee’s return with a bang.

The CPI (M) suffered a double defeat. It lost the status of the main opposition to the Congress, which had contested fewer seats but won more than it could.

Tamil Nadu has been ruled by two regional parties, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and its breakaway group, the All India Anna DMK, since 1967. In recent elections the two parties had won in alternate elections. This time AIADMK Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa beat off the DMK’s challenge and secured a second successive term.

The Trinamool Congress and the AIADMK were both constituents of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance when Atal Behari Vajpayee was the Prime Minister, and Mamata Banerjee was a member of his Cabinet. But the two parties have stayed out of Modi’s NDA.

The Congress party forged an alliance with the DMK in Tamil Nadu. Failing to find an ally, the BJP went alone, and 230 of its 232 candidates forfeited their deposits as they got less than one-sixth of the valid votes polled in their constituencies.

In Kerala, where the Congress-led United Democratic Front and the CPI (M)-led Left Democratic Front have been alternating in power for more than three decades, the BJP picked up an Assembly seat for the first time. A new Hindu party set up by the social organisation of the Ezhavas, the largest OBC community, with Modi’s blessings, was its main ally. While the alliance cut into the votes of the UDF and the LDF, it could not prevent the LDF’s assumption of power in keeping with the established pattern.

The Congress which lost power in Assam and Kerala received a consolation prize in Puduchcherry.

Modi, whose forte is electioneering, has already started making plans for next year’s big fights.-- Gulf Today, May 24, 2016.

Storm over dam in South

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

A storm is brewing over a river water dispute between Kerala and Tamil Nadu, which has been simmering for decades, with political parties and the media playing up emotive aspects like risk of a dam burst and drying up of farmland.

In the eye of the storm is the Mullaperiyar dam, built in 1895 to divert the waters of the Periyar in the state of Travancore to irrigate parched lands in British-ruled Madras presidency. Kerala is worried as the collapse of the aged structure can endanger the lives of three million people in the state.

In 1886, under pressure from the British rulers, the Maharaja of Travancore leased 8,100 acres of land to them for 999 years. The lease agreement gave them British the right to construct irrigation works there and use the impounded waters for irrigation in the Madras presidency.

Since Travancore became part of Kerala, and the areas that benefit by the diversion of river waters are in Tamil Nadu, these states became successor parties to the agreement. Although the two states signed fresh agreements regarding use of the waters of the river after Independence, the colonial character of the lease remained unchanged: the dam located in Kerala remains under Tamil Nadu’s control.

The first dam built by British army engineers was washed away by flood waters within a year. They then built the present one, with a full reservoir level of 152 feet, using stones and surki, a mixture of sugar and calcium oxide. A reinforced concrete parapet was added later.

Concerns about the safety of the dam arose in 1979 when it developed cracks. At a meeting of Kerala and Tamil Nadu officials, convened by the Central Water Commission, it was decided to reduce the reservoir level to 136 feet immediately. Medium and long-term measures to strengthen the dam were also agreed upon.

In 1986 , the CWC proposed additional measures to strengthen the structure and said if Tamil Nadu raised the height of the concrete parapet by two feet the reservoir level could be raised again to 152 feet.

A series of mild tremors, of not more than three on the Richter scale, in the vicinity of the dam aggravated fears about its safety. Experts said a quake of magnitude 6 can bring down the structure. With Tamil Nadu pressing to raise the reservoir level and Kerala resisting it, there was no meeting ground.

In 2000, the Supreme Court, which took over a bunch of petitions filed in the high courts of the two states, asked the Centre to convene a meeting of Chief Ministers to resolve the dispute. The meeting failed to break the deadlock.

In 2006, the court allowed Tamil Nadu to raise the reservoir level to 142 feet and take up measures to strengthen the dam, after which, it said, the level could be raised to 152 feet. Kerala immediately enacted a law to place Mullaperiyar in the Schedule of Endangered Dams and prohibit raising of water level beyond 132 feet. It also announced plans to build a new dam to replace it. Tamil Nadu urged the court to strike down the law and stop Kerala from going ahead with plans to replace the existing dam.

An empowered committee, appointed by the Centre at the court’s instance, is now grappling with the problem. Meanwhile, with 26 tremors reported in four months, Kerala wants to construct the new dam early and scrap the present one.

Tamil Nadu politicians often take a jingoist position on the issue. At their instance, the state last week banned a movie, Dam 999, made by a UAE-based Keralite, Sohan Roy, under a Hollywood banner. They alleged the film, based on the collapse of the Banqiao dam in China in 1975, was made with Mullaperiyar in mind.

Lately some Kerala politicians, too, are adopting strident tones. This may be due partly to the influence of the increasingly sensationalist media and partly to the upcoming Assembly by-election at Piravom, close to the dam site, where the ruling United Democratic Front had scraped through earlier this year with a slender majority of 157 votes.

Actually there is no conflict of interest between the two states. Kerala relies upon Tamil Nadu for grains and vegetables. It is in its interest to ensure that Tamil Nadu farms get water. If the dam collapses, Tamil Nadu will go without water. Chief Minister Oommen Chandy puts it this way: “Safety for Kerala, water for Tamil Nadu.” The system’s failure to resolve the issue can only be attributed to the lack of sensitivity of those operating it. -- Gulf Today, Sharjah, November 28, 2011.

Marching into old age

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

About half of India’s population is younger than 25 years. According to some experts, between 2010 and 2030 the country’s working-age population will grow by 241 million while China’s will grow by only 10 million. This is supposed to give India a distinct advantage in the perceived economic competition with its neighbour.

There is, however, no room for euphoria. The old age population — those aged 60 years and above — which registered only a small increase in the last century, from 5.06 per cent in 1901 to 7.70 per cent in 2001, is set to grow at a fast pace. It is expected to soar to 23 and 30 per cent by 2050.

Some parts of India are already facing the problem of an ageing population. The problem appears to be more acute in the villages than in the urban areas. A national sample survey held a few years ago showed that 84 out of 1,000 aged persons in rural areas could not move and were confined to the bed or home as against only 77 out of 1,000 in the urban areas.

Ageing has assumed serious proportions in Kerala, which boasts of social development indices comparable to those of the West. The state had an old age population of 8.2 per cent at the time of the 2001 census. While the 2011 census data is still being processed, it is estimated that the state’s old age population is now around 11 per cent and may rise to 20 per cent in a decade.

Kerala, which accounts for only about 3.5 per cent of India’s population, already had about 11 per cent of its old age population of 77 million in 2001. An expert group of the Planning Commission has estimated that, life expectancy in the state, which is 71 years for men and 76 years for women, may rise to 75 years and 79 years respectively in 20 years. This means the state is close to the stage where it will have to take care of two generations of old people.

Kerala’s predicament is the result of a successful family planning programme. Tamil Nadu, which has the best record in population control after Kerala, also has a growing geriatric population.

1n 1999, the Indian government formulated a National Policy on Older Persons to ensure the well-being of senior citizens. It envisages provision of state support for financial and food security, health care, shelter and other needs of older persons, an equitable share in development, protection against abuse and exploitation, and certain services to improve the quality of their lives.

Although the Centre advised the states to formulate separate policies of their own to supplement its efforts, few has done so. At present the Centre is reviewing the working of the national policy. This exercise is likely to result in some changes in the policy.

In 2007, the Centre enacted the Maintenance and Welfare of Parents and Senior Citizens Act to cast on the younger generation an obligation to provide need-based maintenance to parents and other senior citizens. If children fail to discharge their duty, parents can seek relief from a tribunal set up for the purpose. The law provides for protection of life and property of senior citizens, revocation of transfer of property and award of penalty in case of negligence or abandonment by relatives.

Almost all states have brought the law into force but many of them are yet to take follow-up measures like framing of rules, appointment of maintenance officers and setting up of maintenance tribunals.

The increasing number of cases of neglect of parents reported from Kerala and Tamil Nadu, which have taken follow-up measures, indicates that the law is not yielding the desired results. Last November Tehelka magazine reported that in some villages of Tamil Nadu family members use the services of quacks to extinguish the lives of senior citizens by administering some poisonous stuff as they are not able to bear the burden of looking after them.

The law is failing as it does not address some critical issues. A comprehensive social security system is needed to ensure that the old do not become a burden on the young. The limited geriatric care facilities available in the country are located in the cities. Such facilities must be available at the primary health centres which serve the rural population. --Gulf Today, Sharjah, March14, 2011

Caste-based discrimination in a Tamil Nadu village

The report on India circulated by the Hong Kong-based Asian Human Rights Commission on the eve of Independence Day is a sad commentary on the state of affairs in the country.

The AHRC statement is based on developments in a village in Tamil Nadu.
It says:

A resolution, recently passed by the Naloor panchayat in Narikudi block of Virudunagar district in Tamil Nadu state is the quintessence of caste based discrimination in India. The panchayat convened a meeting a few months ago and resolved that the proposed construction of a public library building in the panchayat must not be permitted.

The minutes of the panchayat meeting reveal the reason for the council decision. The council and its members feared that the library would be of use to the Dalits (lowest caste/untouchables) in the locality and that the Dalits might get enlightened by accessing knowledge through the public library.

Not stopping at the resolution the council had the audacity to approach the Tamil Nadu High Court with an application seeking the direction of the court to the government to prohibit the government from constructing the library building against the wish of the panchayat. The court while expressing anguish about the very nature of such a resolution dismissed the application. While dismissing the application the court also expressed its concern that such decisions would in fact lead to social unrest and is fundamentally against Article 17 of the Indian Constitution. MORE