India-Pakistan reality check

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

’s on again. The joint statement issued after Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Nawaz Sharif met at Ufa, Russia, signals that India and Pakistan are ready to resume bilateral talks which have been moving on an ‘on-again, off-again’ course for years.

Modi had invited all South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation leaders, including Nawaz Sharif, to attend his swearing-in ceremony last year, and they had all turned up. The development was widely seen as an indication of Modi’s eagerness to improve India’s relations with neighbours and their willingness to reciprocate.

However, India-Pakistan relations suffered a setback soon afterwards. Pakistan’s High Commissioner in New Delhi held consultations with some separatist leaders of Kashmir ahead of a scheduled meeting between Foreign Secretaries of the two countries, and the Modi government responded by cancelling the meeting.

Many at home criticised the decision. They pointed out that earlier, too, the Pakistani envoy had conferred with separatists before a bilateral meeting without inviting such a response. Besides, continued talks were the only sensible course before the two countries. However, Modi had to satisfy his Sangh Parivar followers who had been fed on anti-Pakistan rhetoric.

When India’s Foreign Secretary, S Jaishankar, was in Islamabad last March in the course of a tour of SAARC countries he discussed with his Pakistani counterpart, Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry, ways to resume the dialogue process step by step without setting a time-frame.

The important decisions that emerged from the Modi-Sharif meeting include a meeting between the National Security Advisers of the two countries in New Delhi to discuss terrorism-related issues and a meeting between commanders of the Border Security Force and the Pakistani Rangers to de-escalate tension along the Jammu-Kashmir border, to be followed by a meeting between the Directors-General of Military Operations of the two countries.

India has entertained for long the feeling that Islamabad is not pursuing the case against the Pakistan-based terror group responsible for the 26/11 attack on Mumbai which left 166 people dead. According to Indian officials, a major takeaway of the Modi-Sharif meeting is Pakistan’s offer to cooperate in the terror attack trial by providing voice samples of suspects. It is not clear if the law permits the Pakistan government to do this.

Relations with Pakistan have been a contentious issue in domestic politics. Ironically the Congress, which was in power longer than any other party, is now plugging a critical line which is reminiscent of what the Bharatiya Janata Party did when it was in the opposition

For long the standard phrase in India-Pakistan joint communiqués was that the talks covered all issues, including Kashmir. After the cancellation of Secretary-level talks India was keen to shift the focus from Kashmir to terrorism.

Much of the latest communiqué is taken up by the issue of terrorism. What’s more, there is no specific mention of Kashmir. Indian officials cite this as evidence of Pakistani acceptance of the Indian stand.

However, they also concede, albeit indirectly, that India has been under pressure from the West to resume the dialogue with Pakistan. The US and other foreign governments have been warning India that recurrent exchange of fire along the line of actual control and belligerent statements by BJP leaders, including ministers, were leading to expansion of the Pakistan army’s engagement with terror groups.

The most positive aspect of the new situation is that leaders on both sides who were riding the high horse have come to terms with ground realities. However, they still have to proceed cautiously because of the compulsions of domestic politics.

Even as the BJP was labouring to present the Ufa outcome as a feather on Modi’s cap, Uddhav Thackeray, head of its closest ideological ally, the Shiv Sena, said the meeting with Sharif was unfortunate. “The neighbouring country needs to be taught a lesson in a manner it understands,” he added.

That the dialogue will now be at the level of National Security Advisers, and not Foreign Secretaries, suggests that India-Pakistan relations will be handled directly by the Prime Minister and his office, bypassing the External Affairs Ministry and its officials with experience of diplomatic engagements.

Modi and Nawaz Sharif were in Ufa for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit. SCO admitted both India and Pakistan as full-fledged members at this meeting. It thus becomes another forum where the two countries will work together as equal partners.--Gulf Today, July 14, 2015.

Modi in for a long innings

BRP Bhaskar
Gulf Today

Those who saw the Bharatiya Janata Party’s lacklustre performance in the September by-elections as a sign that the Modi wave, which swept it into power at the Centre in May, was petering out have been proved wrong.

In last week’s State Assembly elections it won an absolute majority in Haryana and secured near-majority in Maharashtra. In both states it boosted its vote share substantially — from 9.04 per cent to 33.2 per cent in Haryana and from 14.2 per cent to 27.8 per cent in Maharashtra.

Both the states will now have BJP chief ministers for the first time. The party was a junior partner of the Shiv Sena in the coalition which ruled Maharashtra between 1995 and 1999. Although the alliance continued even afterwards, power eluded the Hindutva pair. This time, as the party which holds the reins at the Centre, the BJP was unwilling to play second fiddle to the Shiv Sena. This led to breakdown of the coalition

The Congress-National Congress Party alliance, which ruled the state continuously for 15 years, also broke down before the elections, resulting in a virtual free-for-all.

The Shiv Sena and the NCP ended their partnerships thinking they will be able to improve their position and drive a better bargain after the elections. The results dashed their hopes.

Even though the Shiv Sena, which had 44 seats in the 288-member house, raised its strength to 63, the BJP confounded it by raising its strength from 46 to 122 — just 22 short of the half-way mark.

The Congress party’s strength fell from 82 to 42 and the NCP’s from 62 to 41. In a bid to make the best out of the situation, NCP leader Praful Patel offered to support a BJP government from outside. The BJP responded coolly to the unsolicited offer.

The BJP had a good case when it sought more seats from the Shiv Sena since it had a higher success rate in both the 2009 Assembly elections and the recent Lok Sabha elections. In the 2009 Assembly elections the Sena contested 160 seats and the BJP 119. The BJP won 46, but the Sena could win only 44. In this year’s Lok Sabha elections, too, as the major partner, the Sena contested more seats than the BJP but it could win only 18 seats as against the BJP’s 23.

Uddhav Thackeray, who became head of the Shiv Sena on the death of his father Bal Thackeray, the founder of the party, was not ready to give up its primacy in the coalition as he was keen to become the chief minister. When he rejected a suggestion that the two parties share seats equally, the BJP decided to go it alone.

Modi, who was the BJP’s main campaigner, concentrated his attacks on the Congress and the NCP. He tactfully refrained from attacking the Shiv Sena. “This is the first election in the absence of Bal Thackeray, for whom I have great respect,” he said. “I have decided not to utter a single word against the Shiv Sena. That is my tribute to Balasaheb Thackeray.”

Once Uddhav Thackeray gets over the frustration over his party’s loss of primacy in the state to the BJP he is sure to realise that his best option now lies in coming to terms with its reduced status and reviving the alliance with the BJP as the senior partner. That will spare the BJP the awkward situation of having to accept the NCP’s support to form the government.

The Congress had hoped to do well in these elections as both Maharashtra and Haryana prospered under the coalition governments led by it. However, the urban middle classes’ fascination for the Modi brand and the double burden of corruption charges and anti-incumbency, did it in. It ended up in the third place in both the states.

Having lost power in two more states, the Congress party’s stature as a national party has shrunk further. Of the 18 states which have 10 or more seats in the Lok Sabha, only two, Assam and Karnataka, are now under Congress rule. In a third, Kerala, it heads the ruling coalition. The BJP is in control of seven states and is a part of the ruling coalition in one. The remaining seven states are under as many different parties.

It needs to be noted that all the BJP’s gains are not at the expense of the Congress. The decline of the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and the Indian National Lok Dal in Haryana indicates that it is weaning away people from the regional parties too.

The election results have buttressed the position of Modi and his lieutenant and party president Amit Shah in the BJP. With the battered Congress yet to refloat itself and the non-Congress opposition parties unable to put their act together, the BJP under Modi’s captaincy is well set for a long innings. -- Gulf Today, Sharjah, October 21, 2014.

Sena, MNS threats: Shabnam Hashmi's open letter to Maharashtra CM

The Chief Minister,
Maharashtra

Dear Mr Ashok Chavan,

Every society gives enough warning signals before turning totally anti democratic and fascist in nature. If we go back in history we will find that even in fascist Germany the first attack came on the freedom of expression of artists and intellectuals. It is very natural as the struggle for peace, democracy, secular thought, justice and communal harmony is waged by sensitive and creative people. The dream of an equal and just society has always been projected by either the mass movements of ordinary poor and marginalized people, secular political forces, human rights activists or has been portrayed by artists, poets, film makers, theatre directors etc. So those people whose agenda and preoccupation is to spread hatred and disharmony always attack the artists, activists, intellectuals and thinkers.

Unfortunately in the past we have ignored these danger signals and violent acts thus allowing the perpetrators of hate mongering not only to go scot free but also to further vitiate the atmosphere.

What has been happening in Maharashtra the past few months is absolutely shocking and is an attack on the democratic rights of the citizens of not only Maharashtra but all Indians.

I am writing to you as a member of the National Integration Council, Ministry of Home Affairs and I request you to immediately take steps to ensure that the goondaism unleashed by the Shiv Sena and MNS is stopped immediately.

I request you to ensure that Shahrukh Khan, Aamir Khan , whose effigies were burnt in Mumbai and especially Shahrukh Khan, who has received threats in the past few days, are given adequate security, that there is no disturbance when their films are released or screened in theaters. I request you to ensure that no taxi driver or auto rickshaw driver is harassed for not knowing or speaking Marathi (its good that you backtracked on January 20 from a similar unconstitutional stand on the question of issuing licenses to the taxi drivers) and that their constitutional and democratic rights of working or living in any part of India are not violated by Shiv Sena hoodlums on the roads.

The kind of filthy language which is being used and threats which are being issued against the senior leaders of your own party are absolutely unacceptable and need to be condemned strongly.

I request you to urgently arrest and prosecute those who are behind the recent incidents.

Sincerely yours

Shabnam Hashmi
Member, National Integration Council, MHA

Copy: Home Minister, Government of India